Ahmadinejad Set To Be Questioned By Majlis Over Economy Scandal

For the very first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, Iran's president is set to be questioned by its Majlis parliament after the required one-quarter of lawmakers needed to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the legislative body signed a petition authorizing such a move.

It should be noted, however, that a similar petition was signed by a hundred (out of 290) members of Majlis last year only to see signatories withdraw their backing for the measure after calls for "unity" came from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Most Iran-watchers agree that the Supreme Leader's blessing will be needed to fully progress with impeachment proceedings against the Iranian president.

The inquiry relates to an ongoing economic scandal that has become a cause célèbre inside Iran. It is alleged that a group of high-ranking (but as of yet unnamed) government officials forged letters of credit from two of Iran's largest state banks to purchase various state-owned companies to the tune of $2.6 billion dollars. Ahmadinejad's image, which has long rested on taking a strong populist and anti-corruption stance against regime-insiders, has been considerably harmed by the controversy, and his economic minister, Shamsoddin Hosseini, is the latest victim claimed by the scandal. Mr. Hosseini has already been found guilty on charges stemming from the ongoing imbroglio, and is set to be impeached by Majlis sometime tomorrow.

For Khamenei and his regime-loyalists, the political calculus remains the same: is it costlier to have Ahmadinejad (and his "deviant current" of advisers) ride out the last, lame-duck years of his presidency, but also have to continue dealing with his maverick tendencies and constant power-grabs; or, would it be more costly to rid the regime of the divisions that his presidency brings, but in the process, have to sacrifice the man who Khamenei so adamantly backed throughout the 2009 post-election crisis, and by consequence cast doubt on his earlier judgment. If the Supreme Leader's recent opaque comments about scrapping the presidency (in favor of a Prime Minister) hints at anything, it's that the ruling class has grown tired of the complications that elections -- be they free or fixed -- bring to Iran's otherwise authoritarian system.
_______
UPDATE: Economy Minister Shamseddin Hosseini has survived impeachment by a vote of 141-93.

Map of the Day

Ahmadinejad: The Last Iranian President?

Tehran Bureau reports:

Referring to the elimination of the post of prime minister in the last months of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's life, Khamenei said, "Our political system is based on a presidency, and the president is elected by the direct vote of the people, which is a good and effective system. But if in the near or distant future it seems that a parliamentary system is better for selecting the officials of the executive branch, there will be no problem in changing the present system."

This comes two weeks after Majlis deputy Hamid Reza Katouzian hinted of eliminating the presidency and replacing it with a prime minister elected from the parliamentary body. With Ahmadinejad's wings all but clipped, all eyes are shifting to the 2012 Majlis elections. Memories of Iran's last election are surely still fresh in the Iranian public's mind, and it remains to be seen how the perceived futility (and fear) of going out to the polls will affect turnout (assuming that reformists are even able to field candidates and avoid a boycott). The ruling class, for its part, has remained coy about how it is going resolve its current crisis of leadership, i.e. the Old Guard versus the New Right.

These same divisions were apparent in the decision to arrest a number of Ahmadinejad's aides and Mashaei's advisers, but to hold off on going after the two men directly dispute calls to do so. And most recently, the same fissures are likely what allowed an amateur plot against the Saudi ambassador to the United States to develop without first catching the attention of the Iranian leadership. There are indeed real rifts inside Iran, and as the country's economy continues to stagger under massive inflation, unemployment, and international sanctions, and as the Arab awakening enters its eleventh month and inches ever-closer to Iran, the stability of the regime has never looked more tenuous. Khamenei's words may eventually end up being hyperbole, but there should be no surprise if a desperate Tehran soon ends up taking drastic steps to try to ensure its political survival.

Khamenei's comments (in Farsi) are embedded below:

United States of America v. Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri

The formal complaint of today's bombshell allegation -- that Iranian agents conspired in a murder-for-hire scheme to enlist a Mexican drug cartel member to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States -- is available here in Acrobat format.