22 August 2011

Iran Reportedly Cuts Funding to Hamas Over Group's Refusal to Hold Pro-Assad Rallies

Reuters reports:
One diplomat, who asked not to be identified, said intelligence reports showed that Iran had reduced funding for Hamas.
Other diplomatic sources, also relying on intelligence assessments, said the payments had stopped over the past two months.
The diplomats cited Iran's displeasure over Hamas' refusal to hold rallies in support of Tehran's ally, Assad, in Palestinian refugee camps in Syria after an uprising against his rule. Hamas' leadership outside the Gaza Strip is headquartered in Damascus.
With Gaddafi's four-decade reign of Libya now apparently having come to an end, attention shifts back to Syria, where Bashar al-Assad continues to remain defiant in the face of resilient streets protests calling for his ouster. For the Islamic Republic, the Alawai regime's survival is crucial. Were Assad to fall, Iran would not only lose its chief regional ally, but would also find it increasing difficult to prop up Hezbollah, its Shiaa proxy based in neighboring Lebanon.

And that's not to mention the emotional and psychological boost Iran's opposition would have with the fall of yet another tyrant in its backyard. With Ben Ali and Mubarak overthrown, Saleh recuperating in Riyadh, Gaddafi now on the run, and Assad backed increasingly into a corner, the Arab Spring is inching ever-closer to Iran's doorstep. Time will tell if and how Iran's opposition will mount a resurgence, and were that come to pass, how an increasingly-isolated Iranian leadership will respond.

With the fall of Tripoli, all eyes are now on Damascus.

05 August 2011

New Piece in World Politics Review

In a new article for World Politics Review, I look at what impact the Arab Spring has had on the foreign policy reality of Iran. Through a survey of the region, I argue that the Islamic Republic has suffered more long-term geostrategic setbacks than it has made short-term and fleeting gains, and that it may ultimately face newed protests of its own.

The article is available here with a paid subscription or can be purchased on Amazon.com.

04 August 2011

Ahmadinejad Interviewed as Mubarak Trial Begins

Euronews has conducted a new interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and in light of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's trial beginning in Cairo, some of the questions are steeped in symbolism in the wake of the events of 2009.
Q: Do you think what we've seen elsewhere in the Middle East might happen in Iran too? Or are you confident everything is stable here?  
A: What happened in Iran is not the same as what is going on in certain other countries. A totally free election was held in Iran.
An excerpt of the interview is embedded below, and a transcript of the entire interview is available here.



(h/t EAWorldView).

03 August 2011

Revolutionary Guard General Appointed Oil Minister

With Majlis' 264-216 vote, Rostam Ghasemi becomes the first Revolutionary Guard commander to head a non-defense related government ministry. Ahmadinejad's pick, which had been widely opposed, not only marks a recent rare victory for the embattled president, but also consolidates further economic control into the hands of the country's paramilitary. Notably, Ghasemi is currently subject to both United States and European Union sanctions stemming from his role in Iran's nuclear program, and heads over to the Oil Ministry from his current capacity at Khatam al-Anbiya, a financial powerhouse that is one of the Guards many holdings and assets. Going forward, attention should be paid to Ghasemi's role in OPEC, where tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have recently peaked due to disagreements over oil output, and to whatever effect his appointment will have in rallying the increasingly disloyal Revolutionary Guard rank-and-file squarely back into the Ahmadinejad camp.