Mir-Hossein Mousavi (standing) with his late father

Mir Esmail Mousavi, 1908 - 2011

In the cruelest of acts, Iran's regime kept Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a leader of the Green movement, confined to house arrest while his father died at his home at the age of 103. The elder Mousavi had been asking to see his son in the days and weeks leading up to his death, but ultimately passed away with his dying wish gone unheeded.

His death carries with it rather telling symbolism, and speaks to just how far the New Right has steered the current leadership away from the original revolutionaries. Kalame provides the striking context:

It should be noted that prior to the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Ali Khamenei, who had been pursued by the Shah's regime, was offered sanctuary in [...] the same house at which Mir Esmail Mousavi died today.

Security forces arrested seven people attending Mousavi's funeral ceremony on Thursday, as he was buried at a cemetery in Tehran under heavy security.

Uprising in Syria Poses Problem for Iran's Spin-Doctors

On-edge from opposition protests that have continued to occur in the country since 2009, the Islamic Republic has been keen to portray current events in the Middle East and North Africa as anything but a popular awakening against the region's authoritarian masters -- itself included.

Initially with Tunisia, the regime took a cautious approach, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast stressing that while protests were an internal Tunisian matter, the Islamic Republic hoped that various social groups and political parties could come together to restore stability to the country.

As the contagion spread, however, the regime could no longer stay silent on the Egyptian revolution. It backed the people, but only after contending that the uprising was an extension of Iran's own 1979 Islamic Revolution, prompting an immediate response from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Weeks later, Mehmanparast went on to blast the crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in Yemen, which had earlier blamed the Islamic Republic for arming a Shi'aa separatist group in a U.S. diplomatic cable leaked to Wikileaks. Needless to say, the regime had little to lose in backing the overthrow of an unfriendly Arab rival across the Gulf.

In Libya, the regime was quick to condemn Gaddafi's mass atrocities -- which have gone far beyond what it dished out following the 2009 election -- while warning of Western "colonial intentions" in the country equally quickly following the adoption of UNSC Resolution 1973.

In the case of Bahrain, the island-state with a Shi'aa majority but ruled by a Sunni monarch, sectarian fault lines were bound to become an issue. Following the deployment of a Saudi-led GCC force of 2,000 into the country to help the quell protests, Iran and Bahrain each withdrew their respective ambassadors, and a proxy-war of sorts has taken shape between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the fate of the tiny Gulf state.

But in each instance, it is important to note that whatever its ulterior motives, Iran has publicly supported the people. In the wake of its own violent campaign of repression, this naturally makes the regime look incredibly hypocritical, hence the P.R. spin-campaign. But Syria is different, and is in fact the regime's number-one ally in the region. Together, the two countries have a mutual defense agreement, and the Assad regime is cozy with Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in the Levant.

And so with tens of thousands of people protesting in southern Syria, and indications that the uprising is spreading throughout the country, it will be interesting to see how the Islamic Republic responds. As many as one hundred have been killed by Syrian security forces during the last week, and the leadership seems tense, already promising significant reforms. At this early stage, demonstrators seem emboldened, and they have reason to be: the protests are the greatest threat facing the Syrian regime since the '70s. With its regional interests at stake, the Iranian leadership will likely find itself suddenly tongue-tied in supporting their aspirations. But if Libya and Yemen are to fall in the coming days and weeks, expect its reverberations to galvanize protesters yet again, from Manama to Algiers, from Damascus to Tehran.

President Obama's 1390 (2011) Nowruz Message

As Saudi Troops Enter Manama, Tensions With Iran Rise

Bahrain, which is 70% Shi'aa but ruled by a Sunni monarch, has been facing large protests for weeks now, with protesters calling for vast political reforms and many demanding the dissolution of the monarchy. Given the sectarian fault-lines at play, the kingdom is wary of its Persian neighbor, and is right to be. For Iran, the island nation naturally falls within its sphere of influence. Facing mounting protests and caught between two regional rivals -- one Shi'aa and one Sunni -- the kingdom has decided to call in a Saudi-led GCC force 2,000 to help quell the uprising. The organization's charter, however only pertains to mutual defense, not the suppression of a domestic rebellion. Not surprisingly, Iran was swift to denounce the move, calling it unacceptable and warning of "dangerous consequences." In response, Bahrain has withdrawn its ambassador to Tehran.

The Arab Spring, as it has come to be known, has thus far been exclusively about organic and domestic opposition movements, rising up from Morocco to Iraq. But with today's sudden escalation of tensions, the region's first geopolitical rivalry is playing out. Indeed, a 'Cold War' of sorts is tied to the fate of Bahrain, the reluctant proxy caught in the Gulf between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Ultimately, who between them benefits from close ties with the tiny but strategic island state will depend on what, if anything, protesters achieve within the country.

Tellingly, on the same day that foreign troops entered Manama, thousands of Iranians defied their own authorities and poured into the streets to celebrate Chaharshanbe Suri (a Persian holiday and fire festival) and chant familiar anti-government slogans. Saudi Arabia faced its own 'day of rage' last week, shattering earlier projections that the House of Saud was insulated from the wave of protest sweeping the region. Perhaps, then, the larger question is not who will come out on top with respect to Bahrain, but whether either regime will be around long enough to be able to significantly influence events there.

All of that, and spring is still one week away.
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UPDATE: Iran's Majlis parliament is launching an investigation into today's crackdown by Bahraini authorities. Majlis spokesman Mohsen Kouhkan: "There is a great concern in Majlis over the latest developments in Bahrain, specially because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deployed forces in Bahrain to suppress the people." Tehran has also recalled its ambassador to Bahrain, a tit-for-tat move following Manama's recalling of its own ambassador to Iran.

Rafsanjani Out as Head of Assembly of Experts

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's marginalization constitutes a further consolidation of the regime into the hands of the New Right. While he remains head of the Expediency Council, another influential branch of the Islamic Republic, the Khamenei-Mesbah Yazdi-Ahmadinejad clique is now firmly in control of what direction the regime takes forward. If Rafsanjani's departure marks anything, it is that there's absolutely no room for dissent from within, least from one of the regime's most prominent faces.

What's more, the Assembly not only has the constitutional authority to impeach the current Supreme Leader, but is also tasked with appointing the next one. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's spiritual leader and close ally, Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, is one of the names many consider would fill the role following Ali Khamenei's death, and as I pointed out last June, he has been hinting at his desire for the role. The other name often mentioned is Khamenei's son, Mojtaba. Many contend the Revolutionary Guard head was behind the decision to arrest Mssrs. Mousavi and Karoubi along with their wives last week. With either man assuming the role, the leadership of the regime would undoubtedly shift even more extreme, just as weekly protests are becoming a fixture in the streets of Tehran.

10 Esfand Protests

The Wall Street Journal's Farnaz Fassihi reports on yesterdays protests, which were the first since Mssrs. Mousavi and Karoubi were detained:

The demonstration—part of an opposition plan to challenge the regime with weekly rallies—drew tens of thousands of supporters in Tehran for the third time in two weeks, witnesses said. They said this week's rally, which coincided with Mr. Mousavi's birthday, was the largest and most violent yet.

[...]

The opposition Green Movement appears to have been reinvigorated by the wave of pro-democracy revolts around the Middle East. Analysts say the crowds turning out week after week from Tehran to Shiraz and Mashad are embarrassing the regime and shattering perceptions, both at home and abroad, that the opposition had weakened.

As of Tuesday morning, there is still no word from either leader of the opposition.