Posting Note

Apologies for the hiatus. Regular posting to resume this weekend.

By the Numbers

7,500,000: Number of Iranians engaged in underground employment in 2009. As Booz Allen's Iran-shop Persia House points out, Iran’s underground economy grew from an estimated 22-25% of GDP in the 1990s to 30-35% in 2003. The figure likely stands much higher at present.

1389: The Year of Resistance

As named by Mir-Hossein Mousavi. The Green movement leader's preemptive naming of the new Persian calendar year is an unmistakable challenge to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has traditionally taken it upon himself to name the new year.

( Cartoon Credit: مانا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani )

Nowruz: The Scene From Tehran

Chants of Allah Akbar again echoed from the rooftops of Tehran on Saturday as government officials began giving their annual New Year addresses on state television:

 

Remarks of President Obama Marking Nowruz 1389 (2010)

Today, I want to extend my best wishes to all who are celebrating Nowruz in the United States and around the world. On this New Year’s celebration, friends and family have a unique opportunity to reflect on the year gone by; to celebrate their time together; and to share in their hopes for the future.

One year ago, I chose this occasion to speak directly to the people and leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and to offer a new chapter of engagement on the basis of mutual interests and mutual respect. I did so with no illusions. For three decades, the United States and Iran have been alienated from one another. Iran’s leaders have sought their own legitimacy through hostility to America. And we continue to have serious differences on many issues.

I said, last year, that the choice for a better future was in the hands of Iran’s leaders. That remains true today. Together with the international community, the United States acknowledges your right to peaceful nuclear energy – we insist only that you adhere to the same responsibilities that apply to other nations. We are familiar with your grievances from the past – we have our own grievances as well, but we are prepared to move forward. We know what you’re against; now tell us what you’re for.

For reasons known only to them, the leaders of Iran have shown themselves unable to answer that question. You have refused good faith proposals from the international community. They have turned their backs on a pathway that would bring more opportunity to all Iranians, and allow a great civilization to take its rightful place in the community of nations. Faced with an extended hand, Iran’s leaders have shown only a clenched fist.

Last June, the world watched with admiration, as Iranians sought to exercise their universal right to be heard. But tragically, the aspirations of the Iranian people were also met with a clenched fist, as people marching silently were beaten with batons; political prisoners were rounded up and abused; absurd and false accusations were leveled against the United States and the West; and people everywhere were horrified by the video of a young woman killed in the street.

The United States does not meddle in Iran’s internal affairs. Our commitment – our responsibility – is to stand up for those rights that should be universal to all human beings. That includes the right to speak freely, to assemble without fear; the right to the equal administration of justice, and to express your views without facing retribution against you or your families.

I want the Iranian people to know what my country stands for. The United States believes in the dignity of every human being, and an international order that bends the arc of history in the direction of justice – a future where Iranians can exercise their rights, to participate fully in the global economy, and enrich the world through educational and cultural exchanges beyond Iran’s borders. That is the future that we seek. That is what America is for.

That is why, even as we continue to have differences with the Iranian government, we will sustain our commitment to a more hopeful future for the Iranian people. For instance, by increasing opportunities for educational exchanges so that Iranian students can come to our colleges and universities and to our efforts to ensure that Iranians can have access to the software and Internet technology that will enable them to communicate with each other, and with the world without fear of censorship.

Finally, let me be clear: we are working with the international community to hold the Iranian government accountable because they refuse to live up to their international obligations. But our offer of comprehensive diplomatic contacts and dialogue stands. Indeed, over the course of the last year, it is the Iranian government that has chosen to isolate itself, and to choose a self-defeating focus on the past over a commitment to build a better future.

Last year, I quoted the words of the poet Saadi, who said: "The children of Adam are limbs to each other, having been created of one essence.” I still believe that – I believe it with every fiber of my being. And even as we have differences, the Iranian government continues to have the choice to pursue a better future, and to meet its international responsibilities, while respecting the dignity and fundamental human rights of its own people.

Thank you. And Aid-e-Shoma Mobarak.

Abolhasan Darolshafaei Released

The release of Abolhasan Darolshafaei follows the release of his daughters Banafsheh and Jamileh weeks earlier. Abolhasan's nephew, Yashar, was also subsequently freed on bail.

No members of the Darolshafaei family are any longer in custody, just in time for New Year festivities.

By the Numbers

17: Number of government positions held by Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's top adviser and right-hand man. This sets a record for the most number of posts ever held by any person in the Islamic Republic's thirty-one year history.

Chaharshanbe Suri: Lighting the Flame

As the Persian Nowruz New Years inches closer, the regime's new-found confidence stemming from its relatively successful prevention of massive protests on 22 Bahman may be deteriorating. Chaharshanbe Suri, a pre-Islamic fire festival with Zoroastrian roots, may have been the first instance of renewed clashes between protesters and the regime. The Nowruz holiday is celebrated with the arrival of spring on March 20th, while the 31st anniversary of the referendum creating the Islamic Republic falls on March 30th and Sizdah Bedar, the concluding holiday of the Persian New Year, falls on April 2nd. Needless to say, there are several instances where renewed clashes -- whatever their size or intensity -- can occur in the coming weeks.

As for 'Red Wednesday,' Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei tried to ban the popular secular holiday altogether by issuing a fatwa days earlier stating the celebration is "void of religious roots and cause of great harm and corruption.” In an attempt to carry out his edict, the Revolutionary Guard deployed hundreds of forces in Tehran’s Haft-e Tir Square and Saadat Abad and Velanjak districts to prevent people from gathering. These areas have been gathering points for opposition protests in nearly each major demonstration since the rigged June election.

In issuing the fatwa, Khamenei essentially tried to eliminate a cultural tradition that dates back well over three millennia in only the Islamic Republic's 31st year in existence. Apparently realizing the futility of the decree, a senior police official indirectly contradicted the Supreme Leaders supposedly sacrosanct words by not urging Iranians to avoid the holiday, but instead saying that "people should hold the celebration near their homes." As one resident put it, "This isn't something that the government can take away from us. We've been doing this for 3,000 years. They should just accept it."

Unsurprisingly, Iranians indeed did defy Khamenei's orders, and in doing so, continued to render the leader an increasingly irrelevant figurehead of a militarizing regime. Yet while it appears that many people (throughout all regions of Iran) poured into the streets, reports of clashes with security forces remain hazy at present. Thus, the following accounts should be treated as unconfirmed:

Tehran: There is a report that the Basij headquarter in Baharestan Park in the Vahideh neighborhood was set on fire. (It should be noted that this was the same Basiji center that had played a major role in suppressing previous protests.) Later in the evening, police retreated from the park altogether, according to this same account, allowing those inside and outside the park to congregate. Another report describes clashes occurring in various parts of the capital. Security forces apparently attacked youth making bonfires in the Ekbatan area, leading to the "eruption of severe clashes." A similar clash is being reported around Seyyed Khandan Bridge, where a police officer is said to have been arrested after refusing orders to attack and disburse celebrating youth. 

Isfahan: Severe clashes have also been reported in Iran's cultural capital of Isfahan, specifically near Chahrbagh Bala and Hatef Street. A Basij station near Abdolrazzaq Square is also said to have been attacked.

Masshad: In one of Iran's holiest cities, burning tires were said to litter the streets. A Basiji's motorcycle was also captured and set ablaze in a scene reminiscent of earlier, larger protests. Also similar were chants of "Death to Dictator" and more significantly, "Death to Velayet-eh Faqih."

Shiraz: In southern Iran, reports indicate that clashes occurred between security agents and people in Zerehi Boulevard and Pasdaran Avenue. An eyewitness claims to have witnessed at least several arrests in the area.
______________  

(Celebrants clash with security forces on Chaharshanbe Suri)

ember

the sky is burning,
but its flames are ours,
they reach up past,
the distant stars,
we are venus,
they play mars,
we toss roses,
they spew tar,
but we bear witness,
as we clench our fists,
marching helpless,
despite the risk,
of bloodied limbs,
and lasting scars,
as the city's burning,
but its flames are ours,
and we chant our slogans,
with a thousands' roar,
like our fathers,
who came before,
and now they're swigining,
making old men cry,
as another child,
falls to the ground to die,
but for each like her,
that the world has seen,
there are dozens more,
behind evin,
and so we must be brave,
for the end is far,
as this longing burns,
and its flame is ours.

By the Numbers

402: Number of people executed by the Islamic Republic in the 2009 calendar year. This marks an increase of 52 executions from 2008.

Rafsanjani's Long-term Strategy: Empowering Himself Through Helping the Greens

As the Persian Nowruz New Year fast approaches and Iran's post-election crisis enters its ninth month, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani remains as mercurial a figure as ever in Iranian politics. True to his nickname of Kooseh, or "The Shark," Rafsanjani has been paying lip-service to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei while simultaneously signaling (if only tacitly) solidarity with Iran's Green opposition movement. With his reputation as an incredibly calculating figure, it is hard to believe that this contradiction is coincidental. In fact, Rafsanjani's high level of influence in the system may be paradoxically inhibiting him from more closely aligning with the Green Movement.

In many ways, Rafsanjani's position resembles that of the boy who stuck his finger in the leaking dike in Hans Brinker's classic tale. In the story, the boy's plugging of the hole with his finger was not an attempt to solve the problem at hand, but rather, to prevent an immediate and far more dangerous outcome from occurring. Had the boy gone to fetch help to repair the dike, the levee would have broken and the city would have been flooded. By staying at the dike all night -- not fixing the problem, but preventing it from worsening -- the boy bought time until others discovered him the next morning and were able to make necessary, lasting repairs.

Rafsanjani may find himself in similar circumstances and equally incapable of making a significant move. Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard have shown no intention of curbing their quest to completely control the Islamic Republic. What started out hand-in-hand with the Supreme Leader (with his undoubted blessing of plans to rig the June election) has grown into something far greater. Only one month after the election, Ahmadinejad publicly disobeyed Khamenei by failing to immediately withdraw Esfandiar Mashaei as his top deputy after the Supreme Leader voiced his disapproval. A month later, he showed up unannounced in the Majlis parliament flanked by his armed bodyguards. Constitutional rights have been discarded in countless instances. Needless to say, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement that "Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship" appears troublingly accurate.

One factor that has arguably prevented a complete takeover of the regime from already occurring is the enormous weight that Rafsanjani carries inside of Iran. A father-figure of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, head of two constitutional branches of government, and a man of considerable wealth and influence, Rafsanjani has in many ways served as a buffer to Ahmadinejad's megalomaniacal ambitions. And while by no means himself a democratizing figure, Rafsanjani's perceived loyalty to the Supreme Leader (and the ruling theocracy) has gone to ensure that he remains a formidable presence in the country's politics, thereby creating space for the Green Movement to breathe, evolve, and grow. Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani's recent remarks labeling "those who want to exclude Rafsanjani" from the system as "irrelevant" speaks of just this clout.

This public backing of Khamenei came as recently as two weeks ago, when Rafsanjani reaffirmed his support for the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. “Our focal point is clear and that is the constitution, Islam, the principle of the office of the jurisprudent and supreme leadership,” he said. Statements such as this are far more calculated than simply supporting the Supreme Leader for the sake of winning political capital. Indeed, Rafsanjani is essentially forcing Khamenei to own the very mess that he created. This was just the case when he stated back in December and again earlier this month that the Supreme Leader is “the only one” capable of unifying the country out of the current crisis. While elevating the position of the Supreme Leader with false praise, Rafsanjani’s words actually directly clash with the regime’s official line that there is in fact “no crisis in the country" to begin with.

This obviously does not mean that the Supreme Leader will lead the country out of crisis, nor would it excuse his actions were he to do the unthinkable and actually reverse course and unify the country. Rather, it points to Rafsanjani’s maneuvering within the system. He is not with the Greens per se, but he is taking steps that will ultimately help their cause. He is not fixing the dike; he is plugging the hole.

But just as Rafsanjani has been cautious to not stray too far from the conservative camp, he has also been equally cognizant of the need to reassure the Greens that he shares many of their same concerns. His daughter, Faeze Hashemi, has phrased it less ambiguously, claiming that her father's demands "are the same as the Green Movement." When asked of the possibility of political reconciliation, she went even further, stating that any compromise would be "out of the question" if it did not take into account the gross violation of people's rights. The fact that the Iranian judiciary has now filed charges against Faeze Hashemi (and her brother Mehdi) for "fomenting riots" in Tehran only adds to the credibility of the Rafsanjani name within green circles.

Whether Rafsanjani is technically a 'Green' or not, comments posted on his website following his address to the Assembly of Experts are unmistakably similar to some of the criticisms coming from the leaders of the Green Movement. Comparing the current crisis to the events surrounding the 1906-1911 Constitutional Revolution, Rafsanjani said that certain individuals, while conspiring against the regime, pretend to be supporting the ideals of the Islamic Revolution. With the proper historical context, his message is less veiled: much like how the country's very first National Assembly collapsed, leading to the coup d'etat of Reza Shah in 1921, the regime faces similar dangers today from those who carry the regime's banner but stray from its ideals. Mir-Hossein Mousavi made a similar assessment when he told Kaleme in a post-22 Bahman interview that the refusal to listen to the people's demands "is a sign of tyranny and a distortion of the ideals of the Islamic Revolution."

And while "the Shark" has kept a relatively low profile during the last few months  -- at least when compared to the increasingly pointed rhetoric of both Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi -- his maneuvering within the Islamic Republic's framework points to a strategy to align with some of the more immediate goals of the Green Movement. Just as Mousavi called for the reform of electoral laws in his 17th statement, the Expediency Council  -- a constitutional body which Rafsanjani chairs -- began considering a proposal that would take away the Guardian Council's vetting role, and instead give it to a new "National Election Committee." The committee, not coincidentally, would be under Rafsanjani's supervision at the Expediency Council. It should also be noted that Rafsanjani himself alleged election fraud following his defeat in the 2005 presidential election to none other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Yet it would be remiss to neglect mentioning that Khamenei ordered the new election plans to be drawn up two years ago. The plans, in other words, outdate post-election developments. Regardless of their origin, there is no chance that the regime, facing its greatest crisis since its inception, will suddenly decide to make itself more democratic, and ultimately, more vulnerable.

Rafsanjani's intentions should not be seen in an altruistic or nationalistic light, either. While his political alignment with the Green Movement can be debated, if he is indeed scheming to help the Greens, then he is surely being driven in part by his own political ambitions. For this was Khomenei's right-hand man, a two-term (and almost three-term) president, and still the head of two powerful constitutional bodies. He is Iran's de facto number-two. Helping the Green Movement's cause ultimately helps his cause: gaining more power. And while Rafsanjani's primary concern may currently be preventing Ahmadinejad from tearing Iran's already-polarized political landscape asunder, that may in time prove to be only secondary to his grander scheme of positioning himself to be hailed as the boy who saved the city from ruin.

Caging Iran's Lioness

Simin Behbahani, one of Iran's most beloved poets and writers, was taken into custody this weekend. The "Lioness of Iran," as Behbahani has come to be affectionately known, was apprehended as she tried to leave Tehran to give a speech on International Women's Day in Paris. Her passport was confiscated and she was eventually told to report to a Revolutionary Court.

Behbahani, who was nominated for the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1997, gave a poignant interview to NPR in the days following the Jule election. That interview, as well as a poem she recited about Neda Agha-Soltan, is embedded below:

Posting Note

I will be attending NIAC's "Iran at a Crossroads - Assessing a Changing Landscape" symposium in Washington, DC next week. Among the speakers: Professor Scott Lucas (who runs Enduring America), Professor Juan Cole, Professor Muhammad Sahimi, and Trita Parsi.

Panels I and II are titled "A Century Old Struggle For Democracy" and "The US and Iran: Back to Confrontation?" respectively.

Jamileh Darolshafaei Released on Bail

Following yesterday's release of Banafsheh Darolshafaei from custody, her sister Jamileh was released on bail today by Iranian authorities.

While bail has also been set at 70 million toman for Yashar Darolshafaei, Banafsheh and Jamileh's cousin, there is unfortunately still no word from Abolhasan Darolshafaei, the girls' father. Both men remain detained at present.

Iran and 9/11: Then and Now

2001: "On the evening of September 11, 2001, about two hundred young people gathered in Madar Square, on the north side of Tehran, in a spontaneous candlelight vigil to express sympathy and support for the United States." - The New Yorker (Letter from Tehran, February 2002)

2010: "September 11 was a big lie and a pretext for the war on terror and a prelude to invading Afghanistan." - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while addressing Intelligence Ministry staff.

Ironically, the New Yorker piece continued, "A second vigil, the next night, was attacked by the basij, a volunteer force of religious vigilantes, and then dispersed by the police. The vigils may have been the only pro-American demonstrations in the Islamic world after the terrorist attacks on the United States."

Eerie.

Banafsheh Darolshafaei Released From Custody

Banafsheh Darolshafaei has been released from custody, her brother and prominent Iranian blogger Bahman reports.

Banafsheh, her older sister Jamileh, her cousin Yashar, and both of her parents (Abolhasan Darolshafaei and Safoura Tofangchihaa) were all arrested approximately one month ago on charges of a political nature. Shortly following their arrest, the sisters' mother was released, but Jamileh, Yashar, and Abolhasan Darolshafaei all remain incarcerated at present. Bahman expresses hope that Jamileh will be freed tomorrow, however.

The three siblings are second cousins to this blogger.

Shadi Sadr: U.S. State Department 2010 International Women of Courage Award Winner

Ms. Sadr is a lawyer, journalist, and expert on women's legal rights and has written extensively about the status of women in Iran. Until it was closed down by the Iranian government, she was the director of Raahi, a legal advice center for women. She founded Zanan-e Iran (Women of Iran), the first website dedicated to the work of Iranian women's rights activists. She has represented activists and journalists, including several women sentenced to execution, whose convictions were subsequently overturned. Sadr is also involved in Women's Field, a group of women's rights activists who have launched several campaigns, including the "Stop Stoning Forever" Campaign.

Ms. Sadr was among 33 women arrested in March 2007 for gathering outside a Tehran courtroom to peacefully protest the trial of five Iranian women who were accused of “propaganda against the system” and similar charges. She was held in prison for over two weeks before being released on bail. In the midst of the post-election unrest, Sadr was arrested by plainclothes militiamen on July 17, 2009, as she walked to Friday prayers. She was released, after international outcry, 11 days later, and fled to Germany, where she has remained a staunch activist for women’s legal rights. 

(Source: United States Department of State)

By the Numbers

20,000: Number of people reportedly arrested by regime forces and agents in the greater Tehran metropolitan area on 22 Bahman.

NYC charges Ahmadinejad Lackey with Second Degree Assault

The Criminal Court of the City of New York has charged Hossein Gholamzadeh Mahabadi (who works in Iran's UN mission office in New York City) with second degree assault for attacking and injuring a young woman during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's September 2009 trip to New York. Ahmadinejad was in the United States for the United Nations General Assembly's annual meeting.

The incident occured when Mahabadi -- who was part of Ahmadinejad's entourage -- struck the young woman for taking pictures outside of the hotel where Ahmadinejad was staying, causing her bleeding and bodily injuries. As the woman (who has chosen to stay anonymous) states, "I held the camera in front of my face to take the picture, but all of a sudden I felt something hard hit my face and I fell down."

Assault in the Second Degree, as defined by New York Penal Law §120.05, is a felony offense and punishable by up to seven years in state prison.