As suddenly as the room for compromise and reconciliation had appeared to be opening between Iran's moderates and its Greens, that window has apparently closed during the first few days of Daheh-ye Fajr, or the "10-Day Dawn." The annual ceremony, now in its 31st year, culminates on February 11th with the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.As for where things stand now, the regime has become ever more brutal and desperate in its handling of the post-election crisis, having already executed two political prisoners and with plans to execute nine more before the revolution's anniversary next week, which is also the day of the next planned major demonstration. In the Green camp, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, as reluctant of a leader as he may be, has considerably raised the stakes with an unprecedented statement not only comparing the regime's brutality to that of the Shah, but also conceding that he now sees shortcomings and "failures" of the very Islamic Revolution that he helped bring about. Indeed, not only does the time for compromise appear to be over, but the conditions ensuring the most confrontational period of the post-election crisis appear to be set.
Only a month ago, Mir-Hossein Mousavi released his 17th statement, which included five steps he argued could bring about a reconciliation process that would unify the country and regain the people's trust. Many observers interpreted the statement as a real, tangible opening with which the regime could work with (and still save face), just as many of the more moderate voices within the conservative camp began speaking favorably (and openly) of the need for reconciliation. (The indispensable Khordad88 has translated and assembled a series of analysts' take on the statement, available here.)
In the days and weeks following its release, both sides of the political spectrum began denouncing the "radical elements" that had infiltrated Iranian society. For the regime, this worked as a convenient catch-all to label what it has otherwise been calling "rioters" (i.e. the protesters). For the opposition, the denunciation was a broad (albeit palpable) attack on the regime, from the extremists who have taken control of the government to the security agents they employ to terrorize people in the streets. In both contexts, "extremism" was denounced.
But criticism of the government did not come exclusively from the Green movement. The otherwise mouth-piece state media opened up a tiny bit, if only to vent out some of the people's building anger, and aired surprisingly candid and refreshing debates and interviews regarding the events of the last seven months. Figures such as Javad Etaat and Ali Motahari blasted the government's handling of the post-election crisis while still maintaining loyalty to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Islamic Republic.
With 22 Bahman only a week away, however, it is now not only apparent that such attempts at reconciliation have gone nowhere, but also that the divide between the two sides is increasing. The movement -- and the government's response to it -- is essentially radicalizing.
The brouhaha that erupted over Mehdi Karoubi's misquoted and misinterpreted words concerning Ahmadinejad's "legitimacy" was a symptomatic of just this sentiment. For countless individuals who make up the Green movement, the idea that Karoubi would concede one iota to the regime, even for the sake of pragmatism, was hard to swallow. Ultimately, it signaled that the opposition's grass roots is not ready to cave in. It signaled that the movement will be enduring. Karoubi subsequently not only explained his comments to dispel the fictitious tinge that they'd be given, but went on to sharpen his rhetoric following the incident. In fact, the dissident cleric just suggested an end to the Guardian Council's oversight of popular elections.
On the regime's end, the television debates and interviews that were just becoming a welcome addition to otherwise censored programming have evolved into more propaganda, with agreeing guests only commending the regime's accomplishments. Meanwhile, in a troubling escalation of the crisis, political executions have been introduced as a means of intimidation, just as many more activists are being arrested en masse leading up to Thursday. Internet outages have already begun to be reported.
All of this makes Mousavi's statement that one "can still find the elements and roots that lead to dictatorship” in Iran, made a week before what is shaping to be the largest demonstration since June, all the more significant. For a former Prime Minister close to the Islamic Republic's founding father -- and for someone who still looks to the constitution for guidance -- to publicly call some aspects of the revolution a "failure" is quite a development. It is also worth noting that unlike the Ashura protests, which themselves saw enormous turnout and increasing radicalism, both Mousavi and Karoubi have called on the people to come to the streets on 22 Bahman. (Rafsanjani has as well.) Indeed, depending on the outcome of next week's protests, it may come to mark a turning point in the uprising. If that comes to pass, then the reluctant leaders of a movement that no one predicted may soon begin following their own followers' lead, and in doing so, begin to directly challenge the ruling elite in ways not yet seen.
