- Seeing that the amount of information coming out of Iran has slowed to a crawl, I am going to stop providing updates for the day and will instead have a snap-analysis ready for tomorrow. At first glance, it appears that the day did not belong to the Greens, as many had hoped and had expected. But while the mainstream media may not have the headlines it was expecting for tomorrow's papers, the regime by no means scored a victory today, either. The crisis that the Islamic Republic has been facing for the last eight months will undoubtedly continue, with no resolution in sight. In fact, the idea that protests can be "put out" (as they were in 1999) seems to have all but vanished. Things have matured to such a point where simply preventing the Greens from delivering a devastating blow on days like today is all the government can hope for. Survival has become its modus operandi. The economy, conservative infighting, international sanctions, and indeed, continued protests from the opposition all loom in the weeks and months ahead. And while the Greens continue to ingeniously work on ways to better network and organize, the regime has only thought of installing loudspeakers on Tehran's streets to drown out cries of "death to the dictator." Make no mistake, this is not a battle that the regime is winning, irregardless of how poorly or successfully the day went.
6:00 PM Tehran | 9:30 AM Washington
- Zahra Rahnavard, wife to Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Foreign Policy's third most influential thinker of 2009, was attacked and physically assaulted by plainclothes security agents, the reform candidate's unofficial Facebook page is reporting. After being beaten on the back and head with batons, Rahnavard was able to escape after a group of protesters surrounded her to provide protection.
- Patience: Compared with previous protests, the trickle of information leaving the country is noticeably slower. This is at least partly due to the blanket restriction on internet access draped over the country over the last few days, which is more severe than previous measures taken than in the past. Only after all relevant information makes its way outside the country and revealing videos are posted on YouTube can the day's significance truly be gleaned.
- Crowds: Where are they? Although the aforementioned restrictions prevent those outside of Iran from fully grasping what is happening on the ground, it appears (thus far) that the 22 Bahman protests are not materializing with the force that opposition organizers had hoped. Not only is the intensity seen on Ashura lacking, but the regime's fear campaign appears to have intimidated many in the opposition from protesting.
- The leaders: With confirmation now coming in that Mir-Hossein Mousavi attended today's rallies, all three of the Green movement's leaders made an appearance with the people today. Furthermore, a photo purportedly from today has emerged placing Hashemi Rafsanjani at the protests, as well.
- Fatality: One death is being reported after a protester was allegedly shot in Tehran. The gunman's ID card is said to have been confiscated after he was overwhelmed by nearby protesters. (Identifying and publicly shaming assailants has become a main tactic of Green protesters).
- On the diplomatic front: Swedish police have repelled an attempt by protesters to storm the Islamic Republic's embassy in Stockholm.
- Outside of Tehran: In Isfahan, protesters have amassed near the famous Si-o-Se Pol (33-Bridge) and are chanting anti-Khamenei slogans. The clashes are being described as "much more intense than those that occurred during Ashura," and 12 protesters have reportedly been arrested. In Shiraz, protesters have occupied Paramount Street to Saddi Cinema, chanting familiar anti-regime slogans. The crowd-size is estimated at over 20,000, and security forces have fired tear-gas to disperse the crowd. Enduring America is also reporting demonstrations in Mashhad and Ahvaz.
- Karoubi update: Plainclothes forces assaulted opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi on Ashrafi Esfahani Street, breaking his car's windows and also injuring the dissident cleric's aides and bodyguards. Karoubi escaped after supporters helped him to another vehicle, which was also attacked by regime forces as it left the scene. After conflicting reports from one source that he was bleeding from the head and from Fereshteh Ghazi that he was "unscathed," his son Hossein has confirmed to CNN that he is receiving medical treatment at home for tear gas burns. He also passes word to Radio Farda that his brother, Ali, was arrested when he stepped in to defend his father from regime forces.
- Khatami update: Regime forces also attacked the car carrying former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, breaking its windows. The former president's brother, Mohammad Reza Khatami, along with his wife Zahra Eshraghi, were also briefly arrested before being released after being warned to not return to the streets.
- Slogans: Continuing with the Islamic themes employed during the Ashura protests, several groups of protesters have been heard chanting “Today is day of blood, Yazid will fall!” comparing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to the caliph who killed Imam Hussein in Shia Islam. Also embedded below, protesters are heard chanting "Referendum, referendum, this is the people's slogan!"
- I will be providing hourly updates throughout the day. For what to look for as the day progresses, refer to a primer on the protests I prepared yesterday. In particular, the (1) crowd size, (2) the street-intensity of protests, and (3) the tone and content of slogans being chanted should be kept an ear out for.
