As the "10-Day Dawn" commemorating Ayatollah Khomeini's return from exile draws to a close and culminates tomorrow on 22 Bahman, the day is shaping up to be the largest clash between opposition protesters and the regime since when June's rigged election results were announced. The leaders of the Green movement have not only been releasing a trickle of defiant statements in the final days before the anniversary of the revolution, but their denunciations have grown markedly sharper than at any other time during the last several months. Mir-Hossein Mousavi last week said that the "roots and elements that result in dictatorship" remain in Iran from the reign of the deposed Shah, while Mehdi Karoubi openly predicted that Ahmadinejad would be unable to finish his second term, later adding that his administration is "unworthy of running the country."Attempts at reconciliation have gone nowhere, doomed by the opposition's skepticism, the unwillingness of the Ahmadinejad camp to negotiate, and the halfheartedness of those conservative moderates actually calling for unity. And unlike the Ashura protests -- which were the largest demonstrations the country has seen since June -- the leaders of the Green movement (as well as power-player Hashemi Rafsanjani) are this time around calling on all Iranians to pour out into the streets for 22 Bahman. Needless to say, the stage is set for a showdown tomorrow. And while which direction the day's protests ultimately take the Green movement will not be immediately known, several factors should be closely observed as protesters prepare to brave the streets of Tehran. In particular, (1) the size of the protests' turnout, (2) their "street-intensity," and (3) the slogans their participants chant will be the most telling indicators (barring some breaking major event) of 22 Bahman's significance as the day progresses.
Most immediately, turnout will be the main indicator of the demonstrations' success. After an unprecedented three million people flooded the streets of Tehran in June, crowd sizes gradually decreased from Rafsanjani's Friday sermom in July to Qods Day in September to 13 Aban in November. This trend seemed to halt in December, though, with the 16 Azar protests, and following Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death that same month, the size of protests increased significantly on Ashura. In fact, if Ashura's crowd sizes signified one thing, it was that this movement had passed a threshold of sustainability and was no longer vulnerable of decapitation.
Therefore heading into 22 Bahman, the question is no longer whether the Green movement can survive, but how successful it has been (and will continue to be) in broadening its base of support. Tomorrow, this assessment should be approached in two ways: both with respect to its reach (a) locally within the capital and also also (b) more widely across the country's other major cities and vast rural regions.
With respect to Tehran, an anonymous source within the Tehran police department has already told the Los Angeles Times' Borzou Daragahi that the regime expects 3 million protesters to descend upon the capital tomorrow. While such a turnout may be overly-optimistic (or pessimistic, from the officer's perspective), it has become apparent throughout the last few days that most are expecting the opposition to turn out in force. The movement's grassroots have now made inroads into nearly all sectors of society: southern Tehran, the pious of Tehran, and all generations in Tehran are marching together (tomorrow, literally).
The regime, for its part, has been able to muster up 500,000 supporters of its own, according to the same source. Ahmadinejad is also scheduled to deliver a speech in Azadi Square tomorrow, and a massive flower-covered fence (with just one guarded opening) has been erected around the square to separate his audience from the Greens. This will not only maintain order, but will more importantly preserve the photo-op of "millions" of fictitious supporters turning out in force to back the beleaguered regime.
Outside of Tehran, the situation also appears tense. In Qom and Isfahan, emotions still run high over the passing of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. Late last month marked the 40th day of the late dissident cleric's death, a traditional day of mourning in the Shia faith, and yet the regime prohibited his family from holding the proper ceremonies, a move which angered his former followers. On the labor front, a series of protests have taken place across the country since last week. In Shiraz, there was yet another incident involving the Basij disrupting a sermon at Qhoba Mosque, where Ayatollah Dastgheib, a popular local cleric critical of the government, regularly holds his prayers. All in all, there is no reason to believe that tomorrow will buck the trend of previous protests, where smaller demonstrations held across Iran echoed the calls coming from the streets of Tehran.
With respect to Tehran, an anonymous source within the Tehran police department has already told the Los Angeles Times' Borzou Daragahi that the regime expects 3 million protesters to descend upon the capital tomorrow. While such a turnout may be overly-optimistic (or pessimistic, from the officer's perspective), it has become apparent throughout the last few days that most are expecting the opposition to turn out in force. The movement's grassroots have now made inroads into nearly all sectors of society: southern Tehran, the pious of Tehran, and all generations in Tehran are marching together (tomorrow, literally).
The regime, for its part, has been able to muster up 500,000 supporters of its own, according to the same source. Ahmadinejad is also scheduled to deliver a speech in Azadi Square tomorrow, and a massive flower-covered fence (with just one guarded opening) has been erected around the square to separate his audience from the Greens. This will not only maintain order, but will more importantly preserve the photo-op of "millions" of fictitious supporters turning out in force to back the beleaguered regime.
Outside of Tehran, the situation also appears tense. In Qom and Isfahan, emotions still run high over the passing of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. Late last month marked the 40th day of the late dissident cleric's death, a traditional day of mourning in the Shia faith, and yet the regime prohibited his family from holding the proper ceremonies, a move which angered his former followers. On the labor front, a series of protests have taken place across the country since last week. In Shiraz, there was yet another incident involving the Basij disrupting a sermon at Qhoba Mosque, where Ayatollah Dastgheib, a popular local cleric critical of the government, regularly holds his prayers. All in all, there is no reason to believe that tomorrow will buck the trend of previous protests, where smaller demonstrations held across Iran echoed the calls coming from the streets of Tehran.
Past crowd sizes, the actual street-intensity of the protests will also be key when gleaning away the day's significance. Similar to how the city of Sirjan revolted in the days prior to Ashura, the unrest continuing to grip Lar may serve as an indicator of how contentious tomorrow's confrontation may come to be. Again, the top commander of the Revolutionary Guard has repeated previous threats that the country's security forces "will act harshly" against protesters. This is while Tehran Governor Morteza Tamddon has stated that "no particular security measures" have been taken in preparation of the anniversary, concluding that the "rioters" are bound to be "ineffective."Regardless of what Tehran's governor may say, the regime is definitely on-edge ahead of tomorrow's protests, with an intimidation campaign already well under way. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed to deliver a "punch to the mouth" of the country's opposition if they move ahead with any new protests, while Revolutionary Guard and Basiji reinforcements are already headed towards Tehran en masse. Two protesters have been executed and another (from an original nine) is awaiting execution at any moment. A wave of activist and dissident arrests has also been sweeping the country during the last week, including that of two individuals related to this blogger.
But fear and intimidation aside, the question remains how violently regime agents are prepared to (and have been ordered to) act against protesters. 13 Aban marked a full return to the brutality the regime employed in crushing the June protests, and that level of viciousness has only been growing since November. So too have been protesters' resistance, however, and dramatic video footage from Ashura has showed how overpowering and volatile the "sea of green" can be. With no new developments having emerged since the previous protests, and with the oppositions' anger and frustration towards the regime having only grown since then, there is no reason to expect anything but an increased intensity in tomorrow's demonstrations.
What slogans demonstrators will chant will also serve as an informal barometer of the day's protests. After meager attempts at compromise and reconciliation and a denunciation of radicalism "on both sides" from both sides, what will the streets of Tehran have to say? While anti-regime slogans have been unifying and have served as a rallying cry for protesters, their boldness is beginning to become an issue. Indeed, as chants of "Death to Khamenei" have become increasingly common, they pose a dilemma for the leaders of the Green movement. For it appears more and more as though the people who constitute the movement are leading Mousavi, Karoubi, and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami rather than the other way around.If the movement continues to organically grow more radical -- which it has every indication of doing -- how will its leaders bridge the gap between their own stated loyalties to the Islamic Republic (which inevitably includes the doctrine of velayet-eh faqih and the position of a Supreme Leader) and the demands of their supporters, who are increasingly calling for a secular democracy? Perhaps one of the reasons many regime-insiders have been scrambling to come up with a compromise as of late is because they realize that the movement is slipping out of Mousavi and Karoubi's hands; how events evolve thereafter is less predictable and anyone's guess.
Interestingly, when asked by Der Speigel in a recent interview if "protesters should abandon their demand that Khamenei be deposed," Karoubi refused to respond by saying "I do not want to lead this discussion." What slogans are chanted tomorrow will likely mirror the cries from when another government was taken down by an earlier generation, some 31 years ago. The tone of the chants and rhetoric heard tomorrow can serve as a prism of how far the divide between the leaders and the foot-soldiers of the Green movement has grown.
Past all of these indicators, however, it will ultimately be the what the Islamic Republic does after the dust settles that will be most consequential to the future of the country. While all parties are expecting a confrontation, no one truly knows how the regime will act next. It can either continue to contract (at the risk of suffering more and more defections to the opposition) and continue its transformation into a radicalized core running the Iranian economy and country, or it can make make considerable concessions in a bid for its survival. Thus far, the latter option has been inadequate and the regime has remained self-destructively bent on the former option.
Tomorrow, the regime will again face this choice, with the consequences more amplified and its fate more in the balance. In all of the drama, the revolutionary theme of the day should also not be forgotten, for with it comes a vivid reminder for those living under this government of just how far from the ideals of the late 1970s the country has strayed. Regardless of how the regime chooses to next handle the current crisis, one thing is certain: the status quo is unsustainable.
