Fatalities Mount: Three More Dead

The Iran News Agency reports that three students were killed in clashes with plainclothes Basij forces yesterday at Azad University in Mashhad, Iran's second most populous city. Two male students were reportedly stabbed to death, while a female student was shockingly thrown out a third floor window in the university's dormitory.

IRNA Reports 37 Deaths on Ashura

Rahesabz passes word that the state-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency is now reporting that 37 people were killed throughout Iran on what is being called "Bloody Ashura." What remains unclear is why a mouthpiece for the regime would report fatality figures that are three times higher than what the regime is officially reporting. State television had previously put the number dead at 15, while the regime maintained that 10 were killed by MEK terrorists.

Disturbing Footage Confirms Police Car Ran Over Protesters

Among the unconfirmed reports coming out of Tehran on Ashura was that a car had run over a group of protesters. Video has emerged that seems to confirm that account. An English transcription of what the obviously shaken protester who shot the video is saying is provided below.



He was run over three times! They ran over him three times with a car! With a police car! With a police car! With a police car! They ran over him three times! Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God! They've killed people! They've killed people! Oh my God! They ran a police car over him three times! 

UPDATE: Another video has actually captured police vehicles engaged in the act of running over protesters:

Chants of "Death to Russia" Have Been Heard in the Kremlin

From the Department of Information and Press of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia:

We deeply regret that against this uneasy background false reports are being circulated about an alleged involvement of Moscow in the domestic political processes in Iran. We are sure that this is being done by those opposed to the development of Russian-Iranian cooperation, those who are trying to cause damage to the friendship and understanding between our peoples through such provocative actions. Russia's position of principle is well known. We have not interfered and are not interfering in Iran's internal affairs, or those of any other state for that matter. We are sure that the Iranians are capable of sorting out their problems and hope that they will successfully overcome them.

(h/t Tehran Bureau).

President Obama Comments on the Ashura Protests

President Obama has commented on yesterday's brutal crackdown on protesters in Iran:

The United States joins with the international community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens, which has apparently resulted in detentions, injuries, and even death.

For months, the Iranian people have sought nothing more than to exercise their universal rights. Each time they have done so, they have been met with the iron fist of brutality, even on solemn occasions and holy days. And each time that has happened, the world has watched with deep admiration for the courage and the conviction of the Iranian people who are part of Iran’s great and enduring civilization.

What’s taking place within Iran is not about the United States or any other country. It’s about the Iranian people and their aspirations for justice and a better life for themselves. And the decision of Iran’s leaders to govern through fear and tyranny will not succeed in making those aspirations go away.

As I said in Oslo, it’s telling when governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation. Along with all free nations, the United States stands with those who seek their universal rights. We call upon the Iranian government to abide by the international obligations that it has to respect the rights of its own people.

We call for the immediate release of all who have been unjustly detained within Iran. We will continue to bear witness to the extraordinary events that are taking place there. And I’m confident that history will be on the side of those who seek justice.

As I have been speculating for the last few weeks, it appears that the Obama administration is beginning to recalibrate its Iran policy. Whereas six months ago, it hesitated to forcefully condemn the Iranian regime and openly support the Green movement out of fear of derailing nuclear talks, it now appears that the administration recognizes that Iran's current uprising is not going away. Given the weight that the United States' 1953 coup in Iran still carries inside the country, it is also wise to ensure that a possible new relationship with a future government begin anew.

(h/t niacINsight).

Does Ashura Mark the Beginning of the End?

In one of the most turbulent days in the Islamic Republic’s thirty-year history, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s illegitimacy as president was hardly mentioned. For if Ashura comes to symbolize one thing in another thirty years from now, it may very well mark the day that open contempt for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spread like wildfire across the country’s cities and provinces.

This shift is significant because while Iran rose up in June to contest a rigged presidential election, the presidency itself was always window-dressing for a despotic regime ruled by Khamenei. Whereas six months ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader could have forced Ahmadinejad out as a sacrificial lamb and thereby given the Islamic Republic a plausible chance of surviving its current political crisis, recent events (which undoubtedly had Khamenei’s either explicit or complicit support) have taken the 2009 Iranian uprising to a point of no return. The oxymoronic experiment of a ‘theocratic-democracy’ appears to be on the verge of failure.

Which is what makes the Green movement's adoption of Islamic themes in its confrontation with the regime so ironic. Last week’s death of Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri more than gave the opposition a rallying cry and fallen leader to immortalize. It also opened the eyes of many – particularly the older, conservative clerical class removed and censored from the epicenter of events in Tehran – to the vastness and legitimacy of this social movement. Since June’s unprecedented uprising, security in the city of Qom (where the majority of clerics reside) has been amongst the strictest in the entire country. This is likely because the regime has not forgotten that it was Iran’s religious heartland that came together to usher it into power a revolution ago. And so when hundreds of thousands of mourners became protesters in Qom last week, boldly chanting in unison that “Khamenei is a murderer,” there was a discernable shift in Iran’s political climate.

As if that were not enough, at least 15 protesters – including the nephew of Mir-Hossein Mousavi – were murdered yesterday during one of the most holy days of the Shia faith, which also coincided with the seventh (and religiously significant) day after Montazeri’s passing. Simply put, the brutal attacks of Ashura were an affront on the Islamic faith committed by a supposedly Islamic government. As Mehdi Karoubi put it, “Even the Shah respected Ashura.”

So when word of yesterday’s bloodshed reaches the country’s religious centers – and it surely will in the midst of the chaos that has erupted during the last forty-eight hours – outrage can be expected in Qom. This may soon put Iran’s clerics, both conservative and moderate, in an unenviable position: sacrificing their coveted theocracy in order to salvage their religion’s sanctity. For if it was unclear up until this point, there is surely no way that any clerical scholar of Islam can any longer defend the actions of the Islamic Republic – especially when such actions are committed in Islam’s name, for that matter.

But even assuming that the pillars of the Islamic Republic have been irreparably shaken and that the regime is in its last throes, the question remains how the Green movement will culminate in the weeks and months ahead. Just as Ahmadinejad’s name has been substituted with Khamenei’s in opposition chants, demands that the “coup regime resign” have similarly diminished, along with protesters’ passivity. With more and more people openly labeling Khamenei a “murderer,” it is difficult to see how any mere political solution – even one that includes Khamenei stepping down – will be palatable for the Iranian population. Protesters are no longer marching for their votes to be counted; they are marching the crimson-stained streets of Tehran in pursuit of justice and freedom.

Which begs the question: if conservatives within the regime that are not aligned with Ahmadinejad but are supportive of Khamenei (such as Ali Larijani) come to accept that the ship is sinking, do they retain any clout in affecting the future direction of the country? Given that the nephew of Iran’s former Prime Minister (under Khomeini, no less) was shot dead in streets of Tehran yesterday, it appears that the window for political compromise is closing, if not already closed. This is by no means to argue that there will be a conservative “purge” of the Iranian Majlis parliament once the dust settles, however. Rather, it points to the reality that the landscape has unalterably changed during the course of the last month. Whatever bargaining position Iran’s conservatives may have had in what form a new Iranian government takes has surely and severely been marginalized through their complicity (if not acquiesce) of the regime’s brutal actions.

This also has immediate consequences for Iran’s most mercurial cleric and politician, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Throughout the post-election crisis, and as recently as two weeks ago, Rafsanjani has been using his position as the head of both the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts (which can constitutionally oust Khamenei) to push for a “national unity plan” that would attempt to bridge Iran’s fractured political landscape. While it appears that the rumored plan (which would have kept Khamenei in power in some capacity) never received serious consideration from regime-insiders, it is now apparent that any such attempts at reconciliation will be neither accepted by the majority of Iran’s population nor entertained by an increasingly megalomaniacal inner-circle.

Moreover, this also puts Rafsanjani in the spotlight. While Mousavi, Karoubi, and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami have all come out squarely in the Green camp, Rafsanjnai, Iran’s political “shark,” has essentially strayed on both sides of the conflict. While he has gradually inched closer to the Greens, stating on the eve of 16 Azar that the clerics should govern the country for only so long as “the people of Iran want [them to],” the events of Ashura may finally draw the line in the sand that forces the senior cleric to decide where he will unequivocally stand: with the regime or with the people. If yesterday’s fatalities prove to be as damaging to the regime’s legitimacy as many are speculating, his decision should be easier now more than any other time since June’s election.

If Rafsanjani decides to take the unprecedented step of coming out against Khamenei, which is not as outlandish of a possibility as it once was prior to Karoubi’s blatant condemnation of the regime last night, it would undoubtedly be a game-changer. Simply put, it would openly signal political abandonment of the regime by the country’s second most powerful figure. If Rafsanjani remains quiet, however, questions will surely begin to be raised as to where his true allegiances lie. Consequently, as the demands of a galvanized and broadening opposition grow, he will arguably be less and less able to hedge his bets.

Rafsanjani’s public stance one way or another should not be read as the Green movement’s need for leadership, however. This was similarly misinterpreted when questions arose as to Mousavi and Karoubi’s attendance in previous demonstrations. In fact, what makes the Green movement unique from many others is that its grassroots nature allows it to thrive and grow without the need of a single individual leading the way. Current chatter of an imminent national strike being planned – an enormous development if it proves to be true – is just one example of how such a structure allows the opposition movement to organize through a decentralized communication network rather than a rigid hierarchy.

And so as Tehran faces yet another day of clashes with yesterday’s ashes still smoldering, uncertainty is in the air. Martial law was reportedly declared in Najafabad yesterday. Will the beleaguered security apparatus start to see desertions within its ranks? Will talk of an impending military mutiny against the regime come to fruition? While there are plenty of rumors floating around since yesterday’s tumultuous events, one thing that is certain is that there is no turning back.

Live Ashura Updates

01:00 AM Tehran | 4:30 PM Washington
I'm going to stop providing rolling updates for the day, but a snap-analysis on the day's events (and a forecast of what lays ahead) should be up by tomorrow morning. All-in-all, Ashura proved to be the most momentous day of the post-election crisis since June. The Islamic Republic finds itself increasingly trapped: it needs to use force in order to assert its authority, yet the more force it uses (and the more protesters it martyrs), the more it loses control and destroys what little legitimacy it has left.

While there has been plenty of chatter about the possibility of a militarily mutiny occurring in solidarity with the Green movement, this has thus far not materialized. Grand Ayatollah Sistani has also not broken with his "quietest" tradition of Shia Islam to condemn the actions of the regime. If either of these events is to occur, it would surely bring the regime to the brink of collapse. In the absence of their occurrence, however, such an outcome may nonetheless be inevitable.

Khatami's Tasooa Speech Disrupted by Regime

Former reformist President Mohamad Khatami's speech on the eve of Ashura was disrupted yesterday when approximately 50 security forces attacked the former residence of Ayatollah Khomeini (where Khatami was speaking) and started chanting "Death to those who oppose the Supreme Leader.” After a tense fifteen minute standoff, Khatami was escorted away by his body guards before tear gas was fired to disperse the mourners he was addressing.

Clashes soon reportedly broke out in the surrounding streets, where the protesters who had gathered were beaten with chains and batons. The license plates of those cars that honked their horns in solidarity with the protesters were also said to have been removed.

The dramatic footage from inside sermon hall when Khatami's speech is interrupted is embedded below:

Tehran, The Night Before

(h/t Enduring America).

With Ashura One Day Away, the Islamic Republic Trembles

Ever since Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri’s sudden death last Sunday, events in Iran have been unfolding at a dramatic pace, and with Ashura now only a day away, the regime’s fate has never been more uncertain. In fact, Montazeri’s death may end up being the seminal event that takes the Green Path of Hope from being a social movement into becoming a full-fledged and national uprising.

The regime’s handling of the late dissident cleric’s death has had two discernable effects. First, it has only expanded public sympathy for the Green cause, and particularly to a more pious demographic. The shocking disrespect Khamenei showed in his message of "condolence" by saying he would ask God to forgive Montazeri for failing his “momentous test” -- a reference to the falling out the Montazeri had with Khomeini and his eventual renouncement of the Islamic Republic -- has enraged many Iranians. Khamenei, it should be noted, was not even an Ayatollah when he was anointed Supreme Leader after Khomeini’s death. Montazeri, on the other hand, stood alone with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani as the most senior religious authority in the Shia faith. Khamenei's recent delusions of self-grandeur have only made many religious Iranians become cognizant of a truth that Montazeri stated long ago: the Islamic Republic acts anything but Islamic.

The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has reportedly recognized just how ill-advised the regime’s provocation of those mourning Montazeri’s death may come to be. In a letter to the Interior Minister, the council blasts the attack on Ayatollah Taheri’s mourning ceremony in Isfahan, citing the enormous outrage it created after word leaked out and first reached Qom and then to the rest of the country. For a supposed theocracy to be targetting the clerical class is indeed telling of just how desperate (and paranoid) the regime has become.

Which is precisely why the most striking thing about the latest pro-regime protests was not the calls for Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s arrest, but rather, the chants of “Death to Sanei” that were heard. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sanei, a supporter of the Green movement and heir-apparent to Montazeri’s role as the most senior dissident cleric inside Iran, is one of a few living marjas and his views carry considerable weight. And should Ayatollah Ali Sistani break from his “quietest” tradition of Shia Islam and issue a fatwa against the regime, what little legitimacy Khamenei and the Islamic Republic still retain would instantly vanish. Though Sistani’s plans to take such unprecedented action is only being rumored at this point, it is worth noting that Ayatollah Montazeri issued just such a decree a few months before his passing.

Montazeri’s death has also taken the protests out of Tehran and into Iran’s heartland. There are unconfirmed reports that thousands upon thousands of people have effectively overtaken the city Najafabad, Montazeri’s hometown, and are nearing revolt. Qahderijan, another city in the province of Isfahan, has also reportedly seen a retreat of regime forces after a number of intense clashes with demonstrators. And in Mashhad, Grand Ayatollah Sanei is scheduled to hold a mourning ceremony for Montazeri today. This means that Sanei has left Qom after the regime closed his auditorium and barred him from holding any ceremonies on Ashura. His appearance and sermons in Iran’s second largest city is sure to only fan the flames of the very fire that the regime is trying so desperately to extinguish.

In fact, the number of cities that are planning demonstrations on Ashura is approaching two dozen. What this inevitably means is that the regime's problem of how to allocate the deployment of security forces in Tehran will soon take on macro dimensions. Just as reinforcement Revolutionary Guard agents and Basijis were bussed in to restrict the massive 16 Azar demonstrations (and those that came before it), the regime is now being forced to redeploy portions of its security apparatus to Isfahan. And yet with Ashura (not to mention the highly significant seventh day after Montazeri’s passing) only 24 hours away, the regime has never had a greater need for that muscle to remain in the capital.

At the same time, if security forces leave Isfahan in order to stand down protesters in Tehran on Sunday, that would leave Iran's heartland vulnerable just as protests there are becoming more and more blistering. Alternatively, if the government is to try to contain the fallout it has unleashed in Iran's interior since Montazeri’s passing, it will be leaving Tehran exposed on what is shaping up to be the most massive day of demonstrations the country will have seen since June. There are simply too many cracks for the regime to patch, and it increasingly appears that something must soon give.

Meanwhile, just as the regime’s need to exert force is becoming more pressing by the day, there are signs that its capacity to do so is waning. The presence of several retired military commanders and officers in the protests that rocked Zanjan yesterday indicates that what many have been speculating for some weeks now may in fact be true: the military is on the verge of mutiny. Further still, cohesion among the Revolutionary Guards is simultaneously weakening. There is talk of commanders transferring money abroad and of many in the guard wanting to join the people on Sunday. And after an urgent SNSC communiqué to Tehran requested the police force to devise a plan to gradually take control of the city should Revolutionary Guard forces withdraw, the Tehran police has reportedly informed the regime of its inability to contain large masses as sympathy with the opposition has become widespread amongst its ranks.

So while Ahmadinejad dismisses those who are "mistaken...[for] thinking that something is happening in Iran," his megalomania blinds him of the fact that something already has happened in Iran. Namely, an expansive grassroots movement has taken root, and is growing more strong and brazen by the day. Guided by an old, gentle cleric's memory and spirit, it may soon bring a once-formidable regime to collapse.

(Cartoon Credit: مانا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani)

UPDATE: Renewed clashes are now being reported in Tehran.

Where Time Failed, the Times Gets it Right

The Times (of London) has named Neda Agha-Soltan Person of the Year:

It was not hard to see why Ms Soltan so quickly became the face of the opposition, the Iranian equivalent of the young man who confronted China’s tanks during the Tiananmen Square demonstrations 20 years earlier. She was young and pretty, innocent, brave and modern. She wore make-up beneath her mandatory headscarf, jeans and trainers beneath her long, black coat, and liked to travel. She transcended the narrow confines of religion, nationality and ideology. She evoked almost universal empathy.

[...]

As the new year approaches, the so-called Green Movement appears to be gaining confidence and momentum. It no longer seems impossible that the regime could fall in 2010. If and when it does, Ms Soltan will be remembered as the pre-eminent martyr of the second Iranian revolution.

Only ten days ago, Time magazine chose not to include the "Iranian protester" in a group of finalists (which included runner Usain Bolt) it was considering for its own "Person of the Year." This was done despite the fact that the Iranian protester gained more votes than all other nominees combined in an online vote that Time opened up to the public.

The Look of Worry

Ali Larijani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Ali Khamenei (left to right) attending a commemoration ceremony for Imam Hussein in Tehran, December 25th, 2009.

Qom, Najafabad, and Isfahan Rocked by Protests; Regime's Fate Increasingly Uncertain Heading Into Ashura

Reports of escalting violence are coming out of the province and city of Isfahan. In Najafabad, birthplace of the Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, government forces reportedly attacked crowds gathered to mourn the death of the late dissident cleric. The situation inside the city remains unclear, but some sources are describing the atmosphere as "tense" and "nearing revolt."

There is also word of clashes occurring in Isfahan, Iran's third largest city and former capital during the Safavid dynasty. Yesterday, security forces prevented Ayatollah Seyyed Jalaleldin Taheri from attending a memorial service being held for Ayatollah Montazeri in Seyyed Mosque. Taheri, who had organized the service, resigned from his post as Isfahan's Friday prayers leader in the wake of the 18 Tir attacks on Tehran University.  Revolutionary Guard and Basij agents apparently stopped his car by deploying roadblocks along the highway while he was en route to the service.

A crowd of demonstrators later gathered around Ayatollah Taheri's residence and was able to overpower the heavy police presence to enter his home. Teary-eyed, Taheri said that he had invited people to come to the mosque and was "ashamed to see [security forces] react this way to the memorial service held for a Source of Emulation," referring to Grand Ayotollah Montazeri. "I was aware of the [violent] situation taking place at Seyyed Mosque, and I did not hesitate for one moment to join the people. I tried to reach the ceremony from six different routes, but they closed each one after the other," he added.

Aside from preventing Ayatollah Taheri from attending the memorial service, security forces actually raided Seyyed Mosque and arrested at least 50 people mourning Montazeri's death, as well as a reporter and photojournalist of Mehr News agency. Three police vans took those arrested from the mosque to an undisclosed location.

As this comes amid the reported revolt in Sirjan yesterday, the situation inside the country is becoming increasingly tense. Word has it that the Supreme National Security Council has declared a state of emergency and called all armed forces to return to their stations by midnight, Tehran time. Now only four days away, Ashura may be the volcano that is waiting to erupt.

Channel Four's Jon Snow Interviews Ahmadinejad

City of Sirjan Revolts

The city of Sirjan witnessed a small revolt yesterday when thousands of protesters halted the execution of two convicted criminals.

Esmayil Fathalizade and Mohammad Esfandiarpoor were scheduled to be publicly hanged for possession of illegal firearms and robbery before relatives of the two disrupted the execution. It did not take long before the group of 5,000 some-odd protesters that had amassed at the execution site began shouting insults at security personnel, and as stones soon started being hurled, officials responded with tear gas. In the chaos, both Fathalizade and Esfandiarpoor managed to escape. They were both rearrested in nearby village.

According to reports, the local governor's office rescheduled the execution for later in the day and requested IRGC reinforcements from the nearby city of Kerman. Upon first sight of Basijis and Revolutionary Guard agents, however, protesters began attacking security personnel. After orders were to open fire on the crowd, at least five people while seven remain critically injured. (The total number injured is over twenty-five.) Several security vehicles were also lit on fire, and a state of emergency was declared over Sirjan declared soon thereafter.

Not surprisingly, the Ministry of Intelligence has also banned reporting on the incident.
__________

UPDATE: Amazing footage of the actual rescue of the two prisoners has surfaced, and is embedded below:

The White House Releases Statement on Montazeri's Death

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
December 20, 2009

We express our condolences on the passing of Iranian cleric Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. He was known and internationally respected for his unwavering commitment to universal rights. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family and those who seek to exercise the universal rights and freedoms that he so consistently advocated.

That the Obama administration would even go out of its way to express condolences on Montazeri's death is significant, especially in light of the fact that its self-imposed December deadline for nuclear negotiations is just over a week away. Whereas six months ago, President Obama held back from condemning human rights violations inside Iran out of fear of making the United States a "handy political football," today his administration is openly sharing in the loss of Iran's most senior dissident cleric.

This comes on the heels of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in Stockholm, when he said that "the hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran...have us on their side." With his policy of engaging the Islamic Republic having yielded no results thus far, President Obama may very well be in the first stages of adjusting his Iran policy.

Hundreds of Thousands Turn Out in Qom To Pay Final Respects To Montazeri; Regime On Edge

The turnout -- at least several hundred thousand and possibly as large as one million -- should be extremely troubling to the regime. That a crowd this large materialized, despite intimidation, censorship, and roadblocks, to mourn a cleric who recently questioned Khamenei's Islamic credentials, is as good of an indicator as the regime could have asked for on its perceived legitimacy. The mixture of mourning ceremony with political demonstration was also explicit, complete with green wristbands, banners and chants of "Death to Khamenei." (Apparently "dictator" is becoming increasingly euphemistic for the opposition.) Also noteworthy is that the ceremony was held in Qom, some 120 kilometers from Tehran's eight million people.

Today's incredible outpouring comes just two days after the embarrassing turnout the state-sanctioned demonstrations marking the first day of Moharram produced. All eyes are now on December 27th, which is both the holy day of Ashura (for which demonstrations were already ready being planned) and now also seven days following Montazeri's death, a significant day of mourning in Shia Islam. As these events have gone to form 'the perfect storm,' the day is also shaping up to be the most daunting challenge the regime will have faced since June's unprecedented uprising.

UPDATE: Via Enduring America, this stunning footage from yesterday:

Montazeri Dead at 87; Ashura One Week Away

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri has died.

The most senior source of emulation in Iran, Montazeri had been a frequent and harsh critic of the regime since his falling out with Ayatollah Khomeini. Most recently, his words had taken on a new significance as he had been lending a religious voice of solidarity to the Green movement. Once designated to be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, Montazeri lived under house arrest for much of his later life.

It is significant that yesterday marked the first day of Moharram, the current holy month that has several consecutive days of mourning and public ceremonies. As with previous occasions, the opposition will no doubt exploit the ceremonies to launch political protests. Ashura, the day of the most important ceremony when Imam Hossein is mourned, falls on December 27th.

Montazeri's death just before this day has significant implications. While the regime may be glad to have one of its harshest critics gone, his death is only bound to lead to an enormous outpouring in the streets of Tehran next week. The demonstrations, in fact, may likely be the largest in months.

And making the event all the more significant is the fact that carrying green banners with 'Hossein' written on them is custom on Ashura. This year, of course, Hossein is also the name of an opposition leader (and not just an Imam) and green symbolizes the opposition movement he helped start (and not just Islam). Perhaps realizing the futility in trying to prevent protests, Tehran police commander Azizollah Rajabzadeh said last week that the "police will not take action against those carrying green symbols during Imam Hussein mourning ceremonies."

Khamenei -- and indeed, all regime-insiders -- are also put in a bind: do they dare not publicly mourn the death of the country's most renown marja? On the one hand, the Islamic Republic needs to mourn Montazeri's loss to keep up appearances that it is a legitimate Islamic theocracy. On the other, Montazeri had described this very regime as "tyrannical" only weeks ago, and even publicly said that Khamenei does not have the necessary qualifications to be a marja. Not surprisingly, it was this same regime that had him virtually imprisoned for so many years.

With the increased optimism and determination that resulted from the success of the 16 Azar protests, as well as the regime's increasingly weak hold on power, Montazeri's death may come to be the event that brings this movement to stand up.

Confessions of an Asylum-Seeking Basiji

The United Kingdom's Channel Four has aired an interview with an alleged former member of the Basij who has fled to the UK to seek asylum. "I’ve lost my world and I’ve lost my religion,” he says in the interview before explaining in detail how he personally witnessed murder, torture, and rape. “It was made clear, there was to be no difference between child or adult, men and women. Proper attack, without warning, or any discussion."

The Channel Four segment (in English and with a complete transcript) is available here, while an unedited portion of the interview in Farsi is embedded below:

An Open Letter From an Iranian Soldier "Without Color" to Rafsanjani

Following up on the still-unverified statement from last week, an open letter from an Iranian solider "without color" has been released which holds the "autonomous existence of IRGC and Basij as the gravest danger" to the Iranian nation and its people. The letter goes onto provocatively "accuse Mr. Khamenei and his helpers of high treason" and promises to "bring those to be tried by a martial court at the first possible opportunity."

The full letter is available after the jump.
___________________________________

confession

i am an agent,
and it was a plot,
as i was inciting,
up until i was caught,
and this is my confession,
and this is my plea,
so forgive my delirium,
when i thought to be free,
for you are the leader,
and we are your fall,
and so we should follow,
and refuse to recall,
our moral thoughts,
of islamic creed,
or the teachings of kant,
which you say that you read,
and instead we should listen,
rather than weep,
over and over,
week after week,
so blame me,
it was all my fault,
from the murdered students,
to the burning asphalt,
or the country cheated,
of its fathers' dreams,
i was the bandit,
not the regime,
forgive me,
i beg of you please!
oh loving brother,
it was a disease!
my mind's been gone,
i'm kneeling on knees!
so give me my cure,
and lead me to peace!
and when i am ready,
and nearing release,
continue to guide me,
for i will always agree,
with your knowing words,
so show me the way,
and tell me my vote,
so i won't go astray,
and your bruised fists,
are surely my wrong,
i beg of your pardon,
that my skeleton's strong,
so beat me, brother,
show me the way,
for the words that you hand me,
will end the decay,
that has spread,
to the millions and more,
and with only my speech,
can they no longer ignore,
that you are just,
and that we are wrong,
that when you beat me,
you're making me strong,
so broadcast these words,
but edit these tears,
for my eyelids must not
be able to hear,
your noble tongue,
but only the screams,
those of young boys,
trapped in evin.

(Cartoon Credit: مانا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani)

Possible Schism Forming Between Iranian Military and Paramilitiary Revolutionary Guard

Potentially a game-changer if its veracity proves credible, eight regiments of the Iranian military -- that is, not the Revolutionary Guard or Basij -- have signed an open letter titled "The Military is the Refuge of the Nation" proclaiming that their allegiances are ultimately to the Iranian people. "The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people," the letter continues, "and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor."

I speculated on what possible role that the military would have in the unfolding post-election crisis back in October:

And yet another dimension which begs to be explored is what effect these changes will have on the already marginalized actual military of the country. Unlike their Revolutionary Guard and Basiji counterparts, the majority of Iran's military corps are not ideologically-driven. The paramilitary's unrelenting power grab of the last twenty years has likely left many in the army disillusioned. Perhaps that is why 36 army officers were arrested for planning to attend Rafsanjani's July sermon in full military uniform.

As Enduring America notes, Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard and an out-spoken dissident residing in the United States, has weighed in on the letter, positing that it will boost the movement's morale to know that at least a portion of the country's armed forces is behind them.

The purported audio-recording of the letter (translated by homylafayette here) is embedded below:


________

UPDATE: Naj relays a statement posted on both Mousavi and Karoubi's facebook accounts, announcing demonstration routes in the event that prominent leaders of the Green movement are arrested. It appears as though they are suggesting that yesterday's letter allegedly signed by eight military regiments is a false-flag operation, meant to provide the regime with a fictitious pretext (i.e., an imminent military coup) for widespread arrests. This would be in line with slew of recent videos supposedly showing Greens burning pictures of Khomeini. (Mousavi has openly doubted that the individuals appearing in the videos are Green supporters and has hinted that they are manufactured propaganda meant at disrupting the opposition's unity).

As of Saturday evening, the letter's authenticity remains unconfirmed.

Green Sighting: Kermit The Frog

Sesame Street's Kermit the Frog sings his (updated) classic "It's Not Easy Being Green" in solidarity with the Iranian people.



Courtesy Minnesota Public Radio

In Accepting His Nobel Peace Prize, Hints of Obama's Iran Policy Shine Through

With the culmination of the 16 Azar demonstrations (and the regime's brutal response to them), the confiscation of Shirin Ebadi’s Nobel Peace Prize, and an increasingly worrisome human rights situation inside Iran, it appeared that the stage would be set for President Obama to give a significant speech during his acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize today in Oslo. Deliver a significant speech -- what some pundits are already coining the "Obama Doctrine" -- he surely did. But what Obama did not do was shift U.S. policy towards the Islamic Republic. There was no explicit calling out of the regime's brutality with the purpose of extending (tacit) support to the Green movement.

But there is no doubt that President Obama’s acceptance speech – which was as philosophical as it was policy-orientated – had many references to Iran in it, both directly and implicitly, aimed at both the Iranian people and the theocratic regime.

One of the two times Obama explicitly singled out Iran was on the nuclear issue, if only to stress the importance of countries to not only follow international law – in this instance, the Non-Proliferation Treaty – but to also ensure that such international agreements are followed and respected by all nations. Obama continued:

The same principle applies to those who violate international laws by brutalizing their own people. When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo, repression in Burma -- there must be consequences. Yes, there will be engagement; yes, there will be diplomacy -- but there must be consequences when those things fail. And the closer we stand together, the less likely we will be faced with the choice between armed intervention and complicity in oppression.

What is interesting to note is that while Obama did not mention Iran in his litany of countries that “brutalize their own people,” he used the word "engagement" in his very next sentence. The term “engagement,” of course, has been used almost exclusively vis-à-vis Iranian diplomacy during the first eleven months of the Obama administration. It appears that this was a subtle (if not coy) way of putting the Iranian regime on notice. After all, there are no impending foreign policy crises with respect to Sudan, the Congo, or Myanmar which the United States is using diplomacy to resolve.

President Obama addressed human rights more directly – and more forcefully – later into his speech. Possibly framing his comments in light of repeated accusations of “foreign meddling” coming from the Islamic Republic, Obama rejected that human rights are “Western principles, foreign to local cultures or stages of a nation's development,” saying:

I believe that peace is unstable where citizens are denied the right to speak freely or worship as they please; choose their own leaders or assemble without fear.

[…]

So even as we respect the unique culture and traditions of different countries, America will always be a voice for those aspirations that are universal. We will bear witness to the quiet dignity of reformers like Aung Sang Suu Kyi; to the bravery of Zimbabweans who cast their ballots in the face of beatings; to the hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran. It is telling that the leaders of these governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation. And it is the responsibility of all free people and free nations to make clear that these movements -- these movements of hope and history -- they have us on their side.

If there was a reaching out to the Green movement in President Obama's acceptance speech, this declaration that the United States is "on their side" was it. In fact, CNN reports that Obama departed from his prepared speech, replacing the original line "hope and history are on their side" to the what he said in Oslo, that "these movements...have us on their side" (emphasis added).

Nonetheless, President Obama's commitment as commander-in-chief is to ensure U.S. security, and so it is not surprising that he has thus far put the Iranian nuclear issue ahead of democratization and human rights. Attempting to balance these two seemingly conflicting policy goals, the President's comments towards the end of his speech seemed to be the most specifically tailored towards Iran of all, essentially acknowledging the growing chorus of notable voices who have called on him to at the very least couple his continued engagement with the Islamic Republic with a more forceful condemnation of its human right abuses:

The promotion of human rights cannot be about exhortation alone. At times, it must be coupled with painstaking diplomacy. I know that engagement with repressive regimes lacks the satisfying purity of indignation. But I also know that sanctions without outreach -- condemnation without discussion -- can carry forward only a crippling status quo. No repressive regime can move down a new path unless it has the choice of an open door.

While the President may have laid the groundwork for a series of new targeted sanctions, the Obama administration's policy towards Iran may indeed be nearing a tipping point. There has been frequent talk in Washington of the competing "nuclear" and "democracy" clocks ticking inside Iran: the former referring to the amount of time Iran is away from achieving "breakthrough" nuclear capacity, and the latter estimating the number of years Iran is from democratizing and abandoning the often-provocative role it plays on the international stage. So far, the nuclear clock has undoubtedly been ahead, explaining why Western policymakers can ill afford to "wait" for a more pragmatic Iranian actor to emerge.

But as Iran enters the sixth month of its post-election crisis and with all indications that the regime's problems are only to worsen, the so-called "democracy clock" has undoubtedly been turned forward. It is impossible to tell if and when it will overtake the "nuclear clock," but if that does occur, the United States must be careful of supporting an illegitimate and repressive regime as a new government and civil society begins to take shape. The lessons of 1953 tell of the consequences all too well.

_________________

Obama's Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech is embedded in its entirety below:

Mapping the 16 Azar Protests

Josh Shahryar maps out confirmed or partially confirmed protests that occurred in Iran on 16 Azar:

This has to be troubling for the regime, as the knee-jerk argument that protests are confined to the "bourgeois of northern Tehran" is now clearly false. This has become a national movement.

The Great Satan Myth

Abbas Milani's latest piece in the New Republic calls on the Obama Administration to be more vocal in condemning Iran's human rights abuses, arguing that any accusations of foreign meddling coming from the regime have essentially lost their effectiveness:

Will the United States stand on the side of Iranian democracy now? The worry one hears most often in Washington is that such a stand will backfire; it will bolster the mullahs by annoying the innate nationalism of the Iranian people. But this misunderstands the regime. No matter what the United States does--even if it maintains a studied silence--the regime will describe its opponents as U.S. tools. This accusation is a political necessity for the mullahs and deeply embedded in their worldview. Besides, no matter how much the regime denounces the Great Satan, Iranians, on the whole, remain positively disposed to the United States, at least relative to the rest of the Muslim world.

[...]

But whatever policy the Obama administration adopts, it must not let a tendentious narrative of history tie its hands. The past must not weigh the United States down with guilt. Rather, it should provide an object lesson of the cost incurred when it fails to stand on the side of democracy.

"This is the Islamic Republic"

Via the Daily Dish, a YouTube clip of what appears to be a truck full of Basij or state police slamming into a fleeing motorcyclist in the city of Yazd:



Translation: "Did you see? Did you see? Look! Look at this. Look at this. This is the Islamic Republic. This is the Islamic Republic. Oh my, poor bikers. Look at what they did to his motorbike. I swear to god my body is shaking."

Murder, Torture, and Repression: The Consequences

(Credit: مانا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani)

16 Azar Postmortem: Something is Happening in Iran

Though impossible to tell with the blanket censorship draped over Iran at present, it appears that the size of yesterday's protests were smaller than what was seen on 13 Aban, and on Qods Day before it. No matter. The demonstrations of 16 Azar signaled a shift -- if not response -- on the part of the Green movement to the tyranny and brutality that the regime has come to represent. The message was clear: there is no turning back. In fact, the Islamic Republic's future has never been more uncertain.

As things stand now, this movement is no longer about a stolen election. Truthfully, it hasn't been for quite some time, but that conclusion only became crystalline today. Only four months ago, this was hardly the case. At that time, the Greens represented a peaceful, non-violent movement asking "Where is my vote?" and led by a Prime Minister who stressed -- no, urged -- the need to stay true to the Islamic Republic's framework and constitutional structure, not to mention the wisdom and guidance of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

No longer. Yesterday's demonstrations were organized by a fractal grassroots whose structure is horizontal rather than hierarchical. That is to say, it has no leader. (Incidentally, neither Mousavi, Karoubi, or Khatami apparently took part in yesterday's marches.) These were protests that saw Iranian flags whose white centers were bare, missing the iconic 'Allah' written in form of a red, martyr's tulip. Gone was the silent marching of peaceful demonstrators holding up 'V's' in the air. Instead, pockets of protesters confronted the Basij physically, and at times, overwhelmingly. And protests were not just limited to Tehran, either. Demonstrations have been verified in Mashhad, Shiraz, Rasht, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Arak, Kerman and Najafabad.

Most telling of all, chants of "Death to Khamenei" have now become a demonstration fixture, no longer the sacred red-line that protesters never dared to cross. Indeed, cross they have as his name was cursed repeatedly and as often as Ahmadinejad's yesterday. Only a few months earlier, Khamenei could have caved in, given up Ahmadinejad as a sacrificial lamb, and saved himself, if only to survive in a weaker capacity. He no longer has the luxury of that option. Through his political ineptitude, the Islamic Republic has itself become illegitimate, and that inevitably means that at the very least, the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih must go. The regime has essentially placed itself in an unsustainable dynamic: it insistingly continues to alienate a larger and larger portion of the base from which it derives its legitimacy (the clerical class) while at the same time takes actions against the people that are far too unforgivable to allow for any future possibility of reconciliation, as Rafsanjani was pushing for in September.

Which makes the timing of Rafsanjani's sudden reappearance the day before the protests all the more significant. In a meeting with students in the city of Mashhad, Rafsanjani addressed criticisms of his recent silence by issuing his strongest and most pointed rebuke of the regime yet. Stating that the demands of his July sermon had gone unheeded, Rafsanjani issued a not-so-thinly veiled and ominous warning: "If the people of Iran want us we to govern them, then we may stay. If not, then we should step aside."

Rafsanjani went onto state that the Basij and Revolutionary Guard should have never stood against the people and confirmed the Green movement's right to protest. Though the finger was not directly pointed and Khamenei's name was never spoken, the message was clear: this crisis is the Supreme Leader's doing, and it is only he who can resolve it. Rafsanjani, it should not be forgotten, is Iran's de facto number-two as well as the head of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that is assigned with the task of selecting the next Supreme Leader, and if need be, disposing of the current one. His statement -- and indeed, warning to Khamenei -- was essentially a declaration that if the Islamic Republic's constitutional law and structure is going to be discarded, then he will not stand in the way of its inevitable demise.

Which with yesterday's protests should give the Islamic Republic even more cause for concern. Although state television still broadcasts a confident (read: propagandist) self-image, the regime is undoubtedly scared. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the Revolutionary Guards General who was recently appointed the new head of the Basij, apparently even shot Tehran's Traffic Control Chief in the foot when he was told in a meeting last week that it would be "impossible" to neutralize widespread attempts to bring Tehran's traffic to a halt. Incidents such this -- likely one of many occurring behind closed doors -- speaks of the panic and desperation that is surely beginning to settle into the minds of those in power. It has been seen before, some thirty years ago.

16 Azar: As Morning Breaks Over Tehran's Skies...

(UPDATE: A day-after analysis of the 16 Azar demonstrations is available here).

As the day is just beginning in Tehran, there is still uncertainty as to what form the day's protests will take, and further, what impact they will have in the weeks and months to come. Regardless, the protests provide the Green movement with a necessary chance to come up for air, if only for the political space it provides the opposition to show the regime (and remind the world) that this uprising is far from over.

The question remains, will the regime's response to the protests be similar to what was witnessed on Qods Day, where massive turnout caught the regime off-guard, or will it instead be in the vein of 13 Aban, where gatherings were systematically and ruthlessly broken up by Basij and Revolutionary Guard agents? If events leading up to today's demonstrations are any indicator, the regime is undoubtedly preparing for a clash with protesters: student leaders and activists have been arrested en masse, internet access has been all but disconnected as of yesterday, and most recently, the mothers of 21 victims of the regime's post-election crackdown have been arrested for congregating in Tehran's Leleh Park. (The mother of Neda-Agha Soltan, who recently and explicitly blamed the regime for her daughter's death, is rumored to be among those arrested).

The increasingly confrontational approach taken by the regime (likely out of fear) has worried some within the opposition that what has thus far been a peaceful movement could soon give way to violence. Such concerns were even voiced by Tahkim Vahdat, one of the most radical student groups within Iran. In truth, things are likely just as fluid on the opposition's side as they are in the coup's. And while the possibility of any shift in strategy by the Greens is impossible to tell -- for the movement is fractal, horizontal, and a grassroots -- it does point to the fact that there is no single 'leader' leading the Green Movement anymore. Mousavi's candidacy -- or more accurately, his refusal to concede 'defeat' -- was the catalyst that Iran's long-steaming underbelly had been waiting for. Now that it has come and gone, turning the streets first Green, and then red, the movement has gone from a campaign for one man to a cause for a nation. Tellingly, as students begin preparing for a day of protest as this blog post is being written, there is still no word of whether either Mousavi and Karoubi will join them in the streets (albeit due to a state of virtual house arrest).

By day's end, the dust will have settled and the significance of the today's protests can begin to be slowly gleaned. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the regime to see whether it chooses accommodation or further confrontation. The latter is naturally the likelier (not to mention bloodier) of the two paths, but more and more, it is becoming apparent that all avenues lead the regime to a dead-end.

Across the Gulf, When the Silenced Can Speak

From a concert in Dubai:



(Dubai has a significant Iranian expat community and is one of the most frequent tourist destinations for Iranians.)

Basij 'Reenact' Neda's Death

A group of Basiji Ahmadinejad supporters yesterday "reenacted" the brutal death of Neda Agha-Soltan, the young woman whose death (at the hands of the Basij) was captured on video and shown to the world on YouTube. The Basiji students instead blamed Arash Hejazi, the young doctor who was beside Neda at the time of her shooting and tried to save her life, and who is now living in exile in London.

Of course, Dr. Hejazi is only the latest culprit in the propaganda coming out of the regime. Thus far, the CIA, BBC, British Government, "rioters," and MKO Mujahideen have all previously been blamed.

Obviously distrubed by this sickening event, Neda's mother stated, "They killed my daughter. Once they threatened me to keep silent and it slipped their tongue that they had marked my daughter. They told me that they had filmed me and my daughter in previous demonstrations. This shows that they had marked my daughter and they killed her on that day. Now they have put on a show in front of the British Embassy?"

From Vahidnia to Rashidi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a Mahmoud Vahidnia-like treatment during a recent visit to Tehran’s Amir Kabir University, formerly known as Tehran Polytechnic. Mohammad Younes Rashidi, the student at the prestigious university pictured above, held up a sign that roughly translates to "Fascist President: You don't belong at Polytechnic" during Ahmadinejad's visit. Pedestrian relays news of his expulsion from school, reported arrest and subsequent hunger-strike.

16 Azar is three days away.