Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri has died.The most senior source of emulation in Iran, Montazeri had been a frequent and harsh critic of the regime since his falling out with Ayatollah Khomeini. Most recently, his words had taken on a new significance as he had been lending a religious voice of solidarity to the Green movement. Once designated to be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, Montazeri lived under house arrest for much of his later life.
It is significant that yesterday marked the first day of Moharram, the current holy month that has several consecutive days of mourning and public ceremonies. As with previous occasions, the opposition will no doubt exploit the ceremonies to launch political protests. Ashura, the day of the most important ceremony when Imam Hossein is mourned, falls on December 27th.
Montazeri's death just before this day has significant implications. While the regime may be glad to have one of its harshest critics gone, his death is only bound to lead to an enormous outpouring in the streets of Tehran next week. The demonstrations, in fact, may likely be the largest in months.
And making the event all the more significant is the fact that carrying green banners with 'Hossein' written on them is custom on Ashura. This year, of course, Hossein is also the name of an opposition leader (and not just an Imam) and green symbolizes the opposition movement he helped start (and not just Islam). Perhaps realizing the futility in trying to prevent protests, Tehran police commander Azizollah Rajabzadeh said last week that the "police will not take action against those carrying green symbols during Imam Hussein mourning ceremonies."
Khamenei -- and indeed, all regime-insiders -- are also put in a bind: do they dare not publicly mourn the death of the country's most renown marja? On the one hand, the Islamic Republic needs to mourn Montazeri's loss to keep up appearances that it is a legitimate Islamic theocracy. On the other, Montazeri had described this very regime as "tyrannical" only weeks ago, and even publicly said that Khamenei does not have the necessary qualifications to be a marja. Not surprisingly, it was this same regime that had him virtually imprisoned for so many years.
With the increased optimism and determination that resulted from the success of the 16 Azar protests, as well as the regime's increasingly weak hold on power, Montazeri's death may come to be the event that brings this movement to stand up.
