I'm going to stop providing rolling updates for the day, but a snap-analysis on the day's events (and a forecast of what lays ahead) should be up by tomorrow morning. All-in-all, Ashura proved to be the most momentous day of the post-election crisis since June. The Islamic Republic finds itself increasingly trapped: it needs to use force in order to assert its authority, yet the more force it uses (and the more protesters it martyrs), the more it loses control and destroys what little legitimacy it has left.
While there has been plenty of chatter about the possibility of a militarily mutiny occurring in solidarity with the Green movement, this has thus far not materialized. Grand Ayatollah Sistani has also not broken with his "quietest" tradition of Shia Islam to condemn the actions of the regime. If either of these events is to occur, it would surely bring the regime to the brink of collapse. In the absence of their occurrence, however, such an outcome may nonetheless be inevitable.
11:15 PM Tehran | 2:45 PM Washington
- The regime seems intent on continuing to dig its own grave. With at least 10 protesters killed -- including the nephew of a former Prime Minsiter -- on one of the holiest days in Shia Islam and by a supposed Shia theocracy, rage towards the Islamic Republic is understandably turning very raw. Past all the amazing things that were captured on the footage that leaked out of Iran today, perhaps what was most interesting is what was missing: any mention of Ahmadinejad. The abundance and veracity of anti-Khameini chants on Ashura should not be overlooked. The Supreme Leader (and the doctrine of velayat-eh faqih which vests him with power) has become public enemy number-one.
- Cries of 'Allah Akbar' tonight are reported as being the loudest since June.
- There appear to be increasing calls (and support) for a general strike, possibly beginning tomorrow. Dissident filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf has repeated these calls on BBC Persian, though he should by no means be considered a "roving ambassador" of the Green movement, as some would have him.
- Najafabad is rumored to be under martial law.
- From Reuters: The White House on Sunday condemned what it called the "unjust suppression" of civilians by the Iranian government and said the United States was on the side of protesters. "Hope and history are on the side of those who peacefully seek their universal rights, and so is the United States," White House National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said in a statement.
Since Demcember, the Obama administration has started to take a harder line with the Iranian regime and has abandoned its earlier strategy of avoiding discussion of the popular uprising. During his acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize, President Obama told "the hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran" that the United States is "on their side." Then just last week, the White House issued a statement of condolence on Montazeri's passing. Today's statement should be viewed as the latest indication that the White House has likely reassessed its take on the internal situation in Iran, namely to conclude the distinct possibility that a different government may be facing it at the negotiation table by 2012.
- Robat Karim police station has apparently been taken over by protesters.
- IranNewsNow passes along an amazing video of protesters attacking an anti-riot police truck to free their fellow compatriots:
- Related to a point raised earlier, the Iran News Agency is now reporting that some police stations and Basij houses have been evacuated to ensure that guns do not fall into the hands of protesters.
- Apparently one of those killed in Tehran today was intentionally run over by an SUV driven by anti-riot police forces.
- In today's chaos, at least one thing is certain: the stage is set for new protests in exactly one week from today, as the seventh day after one's passing is a significant day of mourning in the Shia faith. (In addition to Ashura, today was incidentally also a week after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri died.)
8:30 PM Tehran | 12:00 PM Washington
- Protests in the city of Arak have now been confirmed.
- In addition to the police station shown burning earlier, a Basij building has now been set ablaze:
- As numerous videos have now shown, protesters been have directly confronting security forces in the streets of Tehran today. In many cases, cornered Revolutionary Guard or Basij are disarmed and stripped before they are released. As this uprising grows more radical, one has to wonder the fate of those arms. As those who were alive for or have studied the events of 1979 know, the moment when mobs began raiding military garrisons was a turning point in the revolution. It was not long after that the army stood down and the revolution became a reality.
- As dusk nears, there is still wide conflict and unrest ruling the streets of Tehran. It appears that demonstraters are attempting to converge Mirdamad Boulevard at 8:00 PM, Tehran time. Whether they are successful or not, protests and clashes are sure to carry into the night.
- The first pictures of Mousavi's deceased nephew have emerged:
6:30 PM Tehran | 10:00 AM Washington
- Opposition leader Mis-Hossein Mousavi's nephew has died after being shot directly in the chest. Mousavi and the body of his deceased nephew are both reportedly at Sadeghiye Hospital in Tehran.
- Graphic footage of a young protester apparently shot to death:
- Protesters have gathered around Grand Ayatollah Sanei's home.
5:30 PM Tehran | 9:00 AM Washington
- Josh Shahryar passes word of a report of four unconfirmed deaths in Tabriz, where large demonstrations are said to have taken place. Five are already confirmed dead in Tehran. It is significant to note that street fatalities have been rare since June's bloody uprising. The regime undoubtedly remembers that it was a cycle of mourning that allowed the Islamic Revolution to gain steam in 1979, and has thus surely been trying to prevent giving the Green movement further reasons to gather. Nonetheless, it appears that today will see a significant number dead, a fact that is sure to further galvanize the resistance.
- The Iran News Agency reports that protesters have overtaken Enghelab and Damavand Streets, as well as Azadi Square and its surrounding area.
- Again, it is important to take a step back and juxtapose the current sentiment of the opposition with what it was back in June: a non-violent civil rights movement has been essentially radicalized, amazingly by the regime's own ineptitude, into an uprising that is increasingly looking to overthrow the entire government:
4:30 PM Tehran | 8:00 AM Washington
- No longer about Ahmadinejad. The hatred towards Khamenei comes through in this video where protesters tear down a street sign bearing his name:
- Rumors swirl around helicopters seen over the skies of Tehran today. Some allege that their presence is only to intimidate protesters, while others pass on unsubstantiated reports that Khamenei has been evacuated with one to a military base outside of Tehran. In June, there were many accounts (and some videos) of helicopters pouring some sort of liquid onto protesters below.
- Losing control (h/t Josh Shahryar)
- Reuters: An Iranian opposition website said police forces refused orders to shoot at pro-reform protesters during clashes on Sunday in central Tehran, where it reported earlier four demonstrators had been killed. "Police forces are refusing their commanders' orders to shoot at demonstrators in central Tehran ... some of them try to shoot into air when pressured by their commanders."
- Unconfirmed reports claim that three security forces have been killed in clashes.
- Violent protests have rocked Tehran and have also been confirmed in Isfahan, Shiraz, Qom, Ardebil, Babol, and Najafabad. (Protests remain unconfirmed protests in Arak, Mashhad, Tabriz and Mahabad.)
- In a sign that attacks on demonstraters are getting more violent, several accounts now report that security forces are now using knives to disband protesters. Tear gas and live ammunition has also been widely reported, as four deaths can now be confirmed in Tehran. The body of one of the victims is being carried in the video bellow, with protesters chanting, "I Will Kill He Who Has Killed My Brother":
- Security forces have surrounded Ghoba mosque, where Ayatollah Dastgheib was scheduled to hold a sermon commemorating Ashura. (Dastgheib labeled Khamenei an "apostate" in the wake of post-election turmoil).
- Ahmadinejad's name has almost been forgotten in the rage that has been building against Khamenei. Nearly all the slogans being chanted and captured on YouTube are now being directed at the Supreme Leader. There is no doubt that a movement that began contesting an illegitimate election over six months ago is now challenging the very structure of the Islamic Republic.
- A police station has reportedly been set on fire off Vali Asr square.
