27 November 2009

Oslo: Setting the Stage; Will Obama Reach Out to the Greens?

As the Obama administration's nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic have dragged on, there have increasingly been calls -- from the left, right, and the Iranian diaspora community -- for President Obama to couple his engagement on the nuclear front with a more direct condemnation of human rights abuses occurring inside of Iran. PBS and the BBC's recent documentaries centered around the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, as well as the media blitz that has accompanied Newsweek's Maziar Bahari's release from detention in Iran, have only added to such calls.

This month's suspicious death of an Iranian doctor who truthfully reported the results of an autopsy he performed on Mohsen Rouholamini, the son of a prominent conservative adviser to Mohsen Rezaei, has also been receiving significant coverage. (Ramin Pourandarjani, the doctor involved, had written in his report and testified to an investigatory committee that Rouholamini was tortured to death while detained by Revolutionary Guard agents.) Suffice it to say, events such as these have certainly not helped the Obama administration frame the Iran issue in exclusively nuclear terms.

And so on December 10th, the stars may be aligned for President Obama to ratchet up his criticism of the Islamic Republic. Obama will be in Oslo on that date to accept his Nobel Peace Prize. By that point, the administration's self-imposed December deadline for the end of nuclear talks will have passed -- albeit due to political infighting within Iran rather than a lack of want to actually strike a deal -- hence giving Obama yet another pretext to increase the pressure coming from Washington. (The "peace" themed nature of the award is also unlikely to be lost on many.) Further, what's sure to be a violent crackdown will have occurred on December 7th, or 16 Azar, the day of next planned large demonstrations. A flood of YouTube clips capturing what has become the routine brutality of the regime is sure to follow, just three days before Obama's speech.

Making the occasion all the more fitting (not to mention symbolic) is the fact that the regime has now confiscated Shirin Ebadi's Nobel Peace Prize from her safe deposit box. (Ironically, Ms. Ebadi was recognized in 2003 for her work as a human rights attorney in Iran.) This is the first time in the prize's 108-year history that an award has been confiscated, by a state government or otherwise.

While the Iranians who make up the Green wave were obviously receptive to Obama's global message of "hope" in the days and weeks leading up to the June election, their sentiments have since somewhat changed. As the Obama administration has been forced to deal with an illegitimate regime in Tehran, protesters have begun chanting "Obama, Obama, you are either with us or with them!" The stage will indeed be set for President Obama to reach out, if only symbolically, to the millions who make up the Green movement. Impending events and two weeks' time will tell if he will rise to the occasion.