Scott Lucas of Enduring America provides
an excellent breakdown of yesterday's developments. With respect to Khamenei's sermon:
Khamenei is scrambling for position, not against the opposition but against his President and his military. Add to that the significant factor that the Supreme Leader is taking fire from senior clerics in Qom, which Josh Shahryar noted yesterday. So, while trying to secure his “leadership”, he also has to be aware that if he is too ham- and heavy-fisted with the opposition, his religious position will be under further tension.
With Mousavi apparently laying the groundwork for a long-term social movement, Karoubi has also become the most vocal member of the opposition in recent weeks, hence threats and fears of his imminent detention:
Karroubi is the one opposition leader with a significant communications network — significant enough that the Government tried to knock it out with their raids this week, significant enough to survive that attack. He is the leader carrying the documents about the most symbolic and “real” political issue within the Establishment, the alleged abuse of detainees. He is still working within the system, with his negotiations with the judiciary, as well as appealing to those outside it.
