For all the political calculus and maneuvering throughout his career, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has earned the nickname "koo-seh," or "the Shark." Although his Friday Sermon was remarkably supportive of the opposition movement, it was given in July and the atmosphere in Iran has considerably changed since then. There have been Stalinesque show trials broadcast on television and the systematic and state-sanctioned rape of detainees has been exposed. This is to say of the three million people who flooded the streets in July, more than 70 are now dead and those still remaining seldom risk personal injury to demonstrate too loudly. The regime has simply regained its grip on the country, albeit brutally and at much cost.
Rafsanjani has stayed true to his reputation and has somewhat retreated from his earlier position of support for the demonstrators. He speaks out vaguely against "oppression" while at the same time pays lip-service to the wisdom of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
But Iran's "shark" is fast approaching a fork in the road. On the one hand, he has already been accused of corruption by Ahmadinejad on live national television. One of his daughters was arrested and held in custody; following her release, her reputation was publicly attacked by hardliners close to Ahmadinejad. In short, Rafsanjani is being threatened and warned. As a former confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini and arguably the country's most prominent politician, his position matters. He is being reminded (and even ordered) that he must tow the official line, regardless of the fact that that line is no longer either Islamic or 'official'. It is in fact increasingly fascist, in the truest sense of the word.
On the other hand, the Green movement's need for backing is growing daily. The political front, composing of Khatami, Karobui, and Mousavi (a two-term President, former head of the Majlis parliament, and a two-term Prime Minster), has always been solid. But more and more, the country's clerical establishment is doing the once-unthinkable: not only criticizing the Islamic Republic, but characterizing as un-Islamic actions of the Islamic Republic.
These are consequential developments. Should the RASA movement (Green Path of Hope) and the country's top religious figures join forces, the Sepah Pasdaran paramilitary and the security appartus would be the only thing standing in the opposition's way. A monumental hurdle, no doubt, but standing armies have surrendered to crowds of millions before. Most notably in Tehran, 30 years ago.
Rafsanjani has stayed true to his reputation and has somewhat retreated from his earlier position of support for the demonstrators. He speaks out vaguely against "oppression" while at the same time pays lip-service to the wisdom of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
But Iran's "shark" is fast approaching a fork in the road. On the one hand, he has already been accused of corruption by Ahmadinejad on live national television. One of his daughters was arrested and held in custody; following her release, her reputation was publicly attacked by hardliners close to Ahmadinejad. In short, Rafsanjani is being threatened and warned. As a former confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini and arguably the country's most prominent politician, his position matters. He is being reminded (and even ordered) that he must tow the official line, regardless of the fact that that line is no longer either Islamic or 'official'. It is in fact increasingly fascist, in the truest sense of the word.
On the other hand, the Green movement's need for backing is growing daily. The political front, composing of Khatami, Karobui, and Mousavi (a two-term President, former head of the Majlis parliament, and a two-term Prime Minster), has always been solid. But more and more, the country's clerical establishment is doing the once-unthinkable: not only criticizing the Islamic Republic, but characterizing as un-Islamic actions of the Islamic Republic.
These are consequential developments. Should the RASA movement (Green Path of Hope) and the country's top religious figures join forces, the Sepah Pasdaran paramilitary and the security appartus would be the only thing standing in the opposition's way. A monumental hurdle, no doubt, but standing armies have surrendered to crowds of millions before. Most notably in Tehran, 30 years ago.
Rafsanjani is undoubtedly growing aware that a showdown between the fringe-right and the rest of society lies ahead. When this will come, be it next month or five years from now, is irrelevant, for where Rafsanjani lays his allegiances now will ultimately determine his relevance and clout in the future of Iran. As the situation deteriorates, and with Karoubi's arrest imminent, his time to deliberate is quickly coming to an end.
In the meantime, niacINsight explains how there have been suspicious reports today on both IRNA and Fars (both pro-government news agancies) reporting that Rafsanjani is no longer leading Friday prayers on the upcoming Quds holiday. The reports instead have Ahmad Khatami delivering the sermon. Rafsanjani, for his part, has yet to either confirm or deny the reports, and talk of his replacement may just be propaganda aimed at spreading confusion. Either way, if the buzz surrounding September 18th materializes into massive crowds filling Tehran's streets, Rafsanjani may have to make his decision earlier than he may have anticipated.
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Update: Rafsanjani is said to have threatened resignation from all his posts if Karoubi is arrested.
Update: Rafsanjani is said to have threatened resignation from all his posts if Karoubi is arrested.
