A Hiccup for the Regime, on the Economic Front

Earlier this month, there was talk of a Revolutionary Guard front company acquiring a controlling stake in the Telecommunication Company of Iran. This would keep with an already established pattern of Ahmadinejad loyalists gobbling up the private sector for the purposes of enriching their own quasi-governmental elite. IRGC companies already own large sectors of the oil and gas, petrochemical, and agricultural industries, among others. Such a buyout would have further surrendered Iran's economy to the winning coalition of the Ahmadinejad government.

Now, though, there is word that the company's public offering has been postponed, due to "technical problems." One thing that remains to be seen is where the conservatives loyal to Khamenei stand on the IRGC's prominent control of the economy. Many, such as the Larijani brothers, may not be particularly fond of Ahmadinejad, but are willing to work with him for the sake of Iran's rahbar. But that is only a political compromise.

On the economic front, Iran is treading dangerous territory. Inflation is well over 20%, even by the most conservative estimates. Barring some breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear crisis, international sanctions are only bound to get more "crippling," to quote Secretary Clinton. And the price of oil has tanked dramatically compared to around two years ago, when it was at its all-time high. In a word, Iran's economy is suffocating. Mass unemployment breeds mass dissent. If the more pragmatic conservatives supporting Ahmadinejad realize this, then more resistance should be expected, if only for the sake of protecting the Iranian economy.

That is, assuming, that it's not already too late.