...for the most part, these rallies are all breathing corners, gatherings in which we can all stop, catch our breath, and take a look back at the population that has been running with us, a population we could not see while running in the confines and restrictions of our own homes.This promises to be a long-term struggle. It was never about having a revolution overnight. The significance of an opposition movement boldly (and publicly) reasserting itself, amid oppression and despite warnings, should not be overlooked.
2. I think the atmosphere created today both embarassed the regime and also gave it reason to pause.
This video, for example, is taken at Tehran University, right outside where the state-sanctioned prayer was being given by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (if you listen closely, you can actually hear Khatami's voice from the loudspeakers):
The people are bluntly calling Khatami a "liar" and demanding to know, "where is Akbar Hashemi?" (As I posted earlier, Rafsanjani was originally slatted to give the prayer, as he has done for the last 25 years, but was replaced last minute, presumably on orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei.)
I find it hard to believe that such loud crowds, in the tens of thousands at the least, could not be heard where the sermon was being given. The atmosphere around the prayer was so manufactured and unrepresentative of reality, and to have that pierced by the voices of the opposition outside is rather symbolic.
Press TV was even forced to run old footage from a previous year's Quds Day street demonstrations, apparently because there was too much Green in this year's footage to edit out.
This is along the same lines as my earlier post explaining how Ahmadinejad was forced to cut short an interview because the voices of loud nearby crowds were being broadcast live on state television. Similarly and reminiscent of July, this video shows a lonely voice trying to lead a chant of "death to Israel!" only to have a sea of Green respond with "Death to Russia!" instead. The man's sad attempt would be humorous if it wasn't so ridiculous.
This all paints the picture of a majority segment of the population that is very aware of its power in numbers. With that, it becomes very difficult to imagine that regime is not on edge. Although their grip on power is undoubtedly still firm, it is becoming increasingly clear (to everyone) that they are in a small and elite minority. As this crowd aptly asks, "Liar! Liar! Where is your 63%?!"
3. It is very difficult to get a good estimate of crowd sizes within Iran. Having said that, I find wire reports putting the size of the opposition in the "thousands" to be very conservative. From all the accounts coming from various parts of Tehran, it would not surprise me if over 100,000 opposition protesters were in Tehran's streets today - at the very least. But more to the point, there were similar demonstrations in every major Iranian city. Claims that the Green movement is mostly composed of a Northern Tehran Gucci elite are no longer plausible. Quds Day was a national day of protest.
4. Going back to the reference of crowds chanting "Death to Russia," I do not think the young generation of Iranians (roughly two-thirds of the population) will soon forget Russia's backing of Ahmadinejad during this period. The older generation still has heartache from 1953, and Iranians are not a forgetful people.
In a widely read op-ed, a prominent Russian columnist recently advised the Kremlin to "reassess" its strong support of Ahmadinejad in the face of increased anti-Russian sentiment coming out of Iran. If the regime continues to be weakened, it will be interesting to see how Medvedev and Putin will respond. I would not consider Russia's signing onto harsher UN sanctions as being a first indicator, however. Should a new sanctions resolution against Iran be adopted, Russia will probably have acted based on self-interest and been provided some incentive. (Such as the United States' recent announcement that it is shelving plans for a missile defense system in Europe). Agreeing to new sanctions should not be used to gauge the Kremlin's feelings towards Ahmadinejad.
