3 Days Till Qods Day

Rafsanjani, the "shark" that he is, has released a somewhat cryptic statement urging people to come out and show their solidarity with the oppressed people of the world on Quds day. (He is using the plight of the Palestinians as a facade to subtly drop references to the current crisis and support demonstrations. The conceit has not been lost on anyone, it appears). Mousavi, Khatami, and Karoubi have all also said they will be in attendance on Friday.

This has potential to be the next major showdown between the Green movement and the coup government. Agha Bahman sees crowds larger than the three million that poured into Tehran's busy streets in mid-June. I wish I could be as optimistic. However courageous the Iranian people may be, a sense of fear has permeated society - in the wake of state-sanctioned murder and rape - that I think will prevent the types of crowds witnessed after the election from forming. On June 15th, there was a sense of unity, if not innocence, that appears to have been at least somewhat lost. If the situation has matured to a breaking point, however, it is not inconceivable that the people might again realize their power in numbers. (The IRGC never dared attack a crowd of three million, after all). Inevitably, though, this is an assessment only worth making within Iran, not from outside its shielded-off borders.

Finally, IRNA is reporting that Ahmad Khatami, an ultraconservative regular Friday prayer leader, has been substituted to lead Friday prayers on Quds Day. Ahmadinejad is reported to be opening the ceremonies. Tabnak is reporting otherwise, for now.