محسن آرمین، پس از آزادی

The Revolutionary Guard Offers the U.S. a Helping Hand

A wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guard force, best known for its brutal crackdown of street protests last year, has offered the United States its helping hand to contain the catastrophic BP oil spill that is devastating the Gulf of Mexico region. "They can ask and after due consideration, we will send experts from Khatam al-Anbiya to end the major crisis and put an end to the environmental disaster," said Brigadier General Rostam Qasemi of the Guards' industrial wing, who is ironically individually targeted by United States sanctions against the regime. "Despite the recent sanctions, the Guards will embark on its humane mission and take its exclusive and indigenous ability to the Gulf of Mexico," he added.

The National Iranian Drilling Company also offered to help stop the oil spill last month, pointing to the expertise gained by the country during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, when it had to cap large oil well leaks in the Persian Gulf caused by enemy bombardment.

Baby Steps

Many in the Iranian diaspora community have been hesitant to embrace the Green Movement, mainly because of Mir-Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi's shared reluctance to shun the Islamic Republic's constitution and their continued respect for its founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Abbas Milani's new article in the Wall Street Journal points to the newly released Green Movement charter, and notes:

The people's only path to victory, Mr. Mousavi argues, is sustaining a vast, democratic movement that is inclusive, pluralist, averse to revenge and violence, and prone to dialogue and forgiveness. While he admits that in any future Iran religion "will have a presence," he clearly advocates the independence of "religious institutions from institutions of the state." This is as clear a call for genuine secularism as has been in recent political discourse in Iran.

This is the right approach. The grassroots of the Green movement is by no means as monolithic (read: exclusively secular) as some in the West have incorrectly made it out to be, and moreover, the more inclusive the opposition-coalition is, the greater of a threat it poses to the regime. Especially when an increasing number of Muslims turn against the supposedly "Islamic" Republic.

The Green Movement Charter

As referenced to yesterday, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, in his 18th statement, has released what is bound to become a historic document in Iranian history: the self-proclaimed 'Charter' of the Green Movement. The Farsi version is available as an Adobe Acrobat file here, and the English translation is provided below, via Tehran Bureau and Khordaad 88:
_______________________

Preamble
On the first anniversary of the 10th presidential election, we continue to proudly stand tall -- even if we have been whipped, wounded, and imprisoned -- with demands for freedom, social justice, and national sovereignty, and assured of victory with the help of God, because we want nothing other than the nation's rights.

From the lies, fraud, and violations of the law that were used in the election, the question of "where is my vote" was born, and you the people, with utmost clarity and without any ambiguity, shouted this question powerfully in a historic, peaceful march on 25 Khordad 1389 [June 15, 2009]. Except for those made blind and deaf by their superstitions and greed, everyone at the national and international level heard you. But what was the response? Was it anything other than murder and imprisonment, putting chains on the bare feet of the jailed and attacking the university dormitories?

The crimes in Kahrizak and the murders on 25 and 30 Khordad, and on the Day of Ashura will never be erased from the national memory. And they must not, because that would be tantamount to committing treason against the blood of the martyrs and the innocent who were murdered. How can we forget about the shots fired directly at the people and the police cars that ran them over on that day?

Quote of the Day

"Maintaining the independence of religious and clerical bodies from the regime is the only option to preserve the exalted status of religion in the Iranian society and it will be one of the main principles hitting high on the agenda of the Green Movement." - From the Green Movement's purported new "charter," as written by its symbolic leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, which is essentially tantamount to calling for the separation of mosque and state.

Taking Tehran’s Temperature: One Year On

Abbas Milani, Gary Sick, Karim Sadjadpour, and Steve Inskeep commemorated the one year anniversary of Iran's rigged 2009 presidential election with a panel held at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace:

اگر موسوی برنده می شد

The Persian publication Rooz (روز) has translated my piece in the Guardian into Farsi:

احتمال گرم تر شدن روابط ايران و آمريکا در اوائل ماه ژوئن سال گذشته رو به افزايش بود. باراک اوباما تنها پنج ماه پيش از آن مقام رياست جمهوری را تحويل گرفته بود و وعده داده بود اگر ايرانی ها بخواهند مشت بسته خود را باز کنند، ايالات متحده نيز دستش را به سوی رهبران جمهوری اسلامی دراز خواهد کرد. رهبری ايران که پيش تر از سوی دولت بوش در "محور شرارت" جا گرفته بود، ناگهان متوجه شد خواندن ايالات متحده به عنوان "شيطان بزرگ" درحالي که نام وسط رئيس جمهورآن حسين است، کار دشوارتری شده است.  اوباما حتی   حق ايران برای غنی سازی اورانيوم را به رسميت شناخت، چيزی که دولت قبلی آمریکا از قبول آن سر باز می زد

Continued...

Between Cambodia and Kenya

Iran ranks 94th out of a total 104 countries in Legatum's 2009 Prosperity Index, which measures both a country's wealth and its citizens' well-being. Only Algeria and Yemen ranked lower in the MENA region (96th and 101st, respectively) in 2009.

New Piece in the Guardian

In my new article published in the Guardian, I take a look back on the one-year anniversary of last June's contested presidential election and speculate just how differently the Islamic Republic would look today had Mir-Hossein Mousavi become president. With respect to the nuclear issue, the regime's perceived legitimacy, and its general clout in the region, I argue that while the rigging of the election may have immediately benefited the "New Right," it has ultimately weakened the Islamic Republic in the long-run, and perhaps even hastened its eventual demise.

The piece can be found here.

HBO's 'FOR NEDA': The Full Video

Produced by HBO, Voice of America has been granted the rights to broadcast For Neda, the documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan, both on satelitte and over the internet before it is shown on the premium cable television network later this month. While the regime has been jamming VOA's satellite signal to interfere with the documentary's airing, it has already been downloaded off of their website tens of thousands of times over.

A version in Farsi is also available here.

Is Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi Vying to Become Supreme Leader?

From the blog of Nader Uskowi, a fascinating post speculating on the recent moves of Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, the ultraconservative spiritual adviser to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

[Yazdi] has been delivering major political speeches lately in which he seems to be challenging Ayatollah Khamenei’s position as the country’s supreme leader. 

[...] 

Khamenei is reportedly very angry at Mesbah’s recent speeches and the references to him as an 'Imam.'

Other than the twelve hallowed and ordained leaders of the Shi'a faith, only the Islamic Republic's founding father Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has ever been called an 'Imam.' Not even the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is referred to by this title. In mid-May, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, a senior member of the reformist clerical group the Assembly of Combatant Clergy, warned about the increasing power of Ahmadinejad's most supportive cleric:

"The Mesbahiyeh cult, which I have been warning about for years, is not sitting idle; this is a very dangerous and violent group that won’t show mercy to anyone, neither to the Imam, nor to ayatollah Khamenei. They are using him as a tool to reach their goals, and when they accomplish that, they would destroy the supreme leader too." (emphasis added).

While Khamenei almost certainly gave the green light to steal last year's presidential election, he was never truly a part of the fringe "New Right" that has taken Iran hostage. Rather, through his reaffirmation of the rigged vote, his fate became instantly tied with Ahmadinejad's. Nonetheless, some dissent -- however censored and subdued it may be -- still exists in the Islamic Republic. Were the fanatical Mesbah Yazdi to make a move to become Supreme Leader, an unlikely but still alarming prospect, 2009's coup d'etat will have truly come to culmination.

By the Numbers

€1,000,000,000: Amount in loans that China has pledged to Iran to fund municipal projects in the country's capital. “The loan would be used for several construction projects in Tehran, including road networks,” Hossein Mohammad Pourzarandi, a senior official at Tehran municipality, explained.

To Those Iranian Expats Calling for "Revolution"

Mehdi Karoubi responds:

I would like to request from Iranian diaspora to pay attention to some of their demands, expectations and slogans. Unfortunately, some of the excessive remarks that take place outside of Iran lead to internal pressures, and the regime takes advantage of these remarks to increase internal pressure on opposition forces within Iran.

Iranians abroad are the voice of the Iranian people outside of Iran. I am hopeful that as we move forward, the messages and slogans inside and outside Iran will be more aligned. We must also be careful and pay attention to the various influences. Sometimes people with influence who use harsh rhetoric only provide fuel to the ruling government to suppress the movement. This movement will continue and gradually the efforts both within and outside Iran will be better coordinated. It is important that we realize that our victory will require time and will not happen overnight.

The Deal with The Newest Deal

Unfortunately, personal obligations have prevented me from posting on a regular basis during the last few months. While I will continue to remain tied down until early August, I will be posting two items in the coming week. First, I will share my comprehensive look at the role of networks in Iranian social movements. Using the three case studies of the 1979 revolution, the reform movement under Mohammad Khatami that culminated with 1999's 18-Tir uprising, and the current Green movement, I will show how networks have and continue to facilitate political change in Iran.

Secondly, as the one-year anniversary of last year's fraudulent election approaches, I will be publishing a piece in a journal examining the irony of just how much stronger the Islamic Republic would have been had Mir-Hossein Mousavi's electoral victory been allowed to stand, and consequently, how much weaker (and moribund) the current regime has become as a result of the stolen election, not to mention the violent crackdown and current state of affairs that followed.