2013 Elections & Rafsanjani's New Dress

منا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani 

Comments of Barack Obama at the 67th Session of the United Nations General Assembly

Pertaining to Iran:

In Iran, we see where the path of a violent and unaccountable ideology leads. The Iranian people have a remarkable and ancient history, and many Iranians wish to enjoy peace and prosperity alongside their neighbors. But just as it restricts the rights of its own people, the Iranian government continues to prop up a dictator in Damascus and supports terrorist groups abroad. Time and again, it has failed to take the opportunity to demonstrate that its nuclear program is peaceful, and to meet its obligations to the United Nations.

So let me be clear. America wants to resolve this issue through diplomacy, and we believe that there is still time and space to do so. But that time is not unlimited. We respect the right of nations to access peaceful nuclear power, but one of the purposes of the United Nations is to see that we harness that power for peace. And make no mistake, a nuclear-armed Iran is not a challenge that can be contained. It would threaten the elimination of Israel, the security of Gulf nations, and the stability of the global economy. It risks triggering a nuclear-arms race in the region, and the unraveling of the non-proliferation treaty. That’s why a coalition of countries is holding the Iranian government accountable. And that’s why the United States will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

منا نیستانی / Mana Neyestani 

Quote of the Day

"At this time, many Iranians all over the world are watching us and I imagine them to be very happy. They are happy not just because of an important award or a film or filmmaker, but because at the time when talk of war, intimidation and aggression is exchanged between politicians, the name of their country, Iran, is spoken here through her glorious culture, a rich and ancient culture that has been hidden under the heavy dust of politics. I proudly offer this award to the people of my country, a people who respect all cultures and civilizations and despise hostility and resentment." - Asghar Farhadi, accepting his Oscar for prize for best foreign-language film at the 84th Annual Academy Awards.

Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Khamenei Uses the Larijani's to Leverage Pressure on Ahmadinjead

A petition summoning President Ahmadinejad to the Iranian parliament, which appeared all but set to be adopted yesterday, ultimately fell short after a number of lawmakers pulled their support for the measure. While the necessary one-quarter of legislators (73 out of 290) had initially authorized questioning Ahmadinejad, the motion stalled when at least five of them withdrew their signatures at the last minute.

Ahmadinejad’s economy minister, Shamseddin Hosseini, also survived an impeachment vote of his own, 141-93. The two are currently embroiled in an ever-expanding $2.6 billion bank fraud scandal that has begun to threaten the Ahmadinejad administration, though the incumbent president's removal from office still remains a somewhat distant possibility.

In a rather telling development, Hosseini survived impeachment only after Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani, a fierce critic of Ahmadinejad with his own rumored presidential ambitions, took the peculiar step of addressing lawmakers before the vote and asking them to give the economy minister a second chance, pending an independent investigation by the country’s judiciary. In another twist, Iran's chief justice happens to be Larijani's younger brother, Sadegh, who was appointed to the post mere weeks after Ahmadinejad's highly-contested reelection in 2009.

The Larijani brothers enjoy close relations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in the constitutional framework of the Islamic Republic. In this context, Ali Larijani’s words may well have been directed from the Supreme Leader himself, and it should be remembered that a similar petition to summon Ahmadinejad was circulating last year – also with the requisite number of Majlis signatories – until Khamenei himself called for “unity” in the legislative body, causing the motion to be scrapped.

This time around, however, Khamenei has likely grown to see Ahmadinejad’s continued recalcitrance as an increasing liability. At the same time, he tied his own legitimacy to Ahmadinejad’s by providing him unconditional support and backing throughout the 2009 post-election crisis, despite massive opposition protests and upheaval in the streets.

And so on the one hand, the Supreme Leader has allowed for an impeachment vote against one of Ahmadinejad’s chief ministers to commence in Majlis (headed by Ali Larijani), and has blessed the Judiciary's ongoing criminal investigation into the banking fraud case (guided by Sadegh Larijani), but on the other hand, has scuttled Hosseini's imminent impeachment at the last moment and rescued Ahmadinejad from certain embarrassment at the hands of a parliamentary grilling.

Time will tell how events play out, but if Ahmadinejad does not ultimately fall in line and curb his apparent post-presidential ambitions, then Khamenei and the ruling class may have no choice but to follow through on as of yet hollow threats of impeachment. As unlikely as it may appear, the possibility exists that Khamenei's recent comments about scrapping the presidency in favor of a prime ministership were merely a prelude to the future trajectory of the Islamic Republic. Already on several occasions, through comments from both the clergy and top regime brass, Ahmadinejad has been compared to Abulhassan Banisadr, the first Iranian president who was himself impeached before fleeing to Paris. With the presidency vacant, a constitutional amendment could be ushered through, eliminating the post of president (and avoiding a repeat of the 2009 election by entirely bypassing the voting public in 2013), whereby a prime minister could be neatly elected by Majlis from within its own ranks. Should that come to pass, none other than Ali Larijani would be uniquely placed to assume the figurehead "democratic" mantle of the Iranian state.

For now, the embattled Ahmadinejad will stay put as the regime undoubtedly takes further steps to neutralize and contain him for the remaining months of his presidency. But even as unlikely as the above scenario may presently seem, it would only represent the growing anxiety that Khamenei must currently be feeling. If current political divisions would not be healed with Ahmadinejad's exit – be it through his impeachment or by constitutional term-limits – such that the elimination of the entire presidency is deemed necessary, then it is doubtful that these divisions actually arise from the actions of one controversial and unreliable executive. More likely, there are deeper, more profound issues at stake. A sanctioned and lagging economy, staggering unemployment and inflation, the type of youth-bulge that has come to embody the face of the Arab spring protests. Indeed, these are all pressing issues – ones that no President, Prime Minister, or Supreme Leader is immune to in these very turbulent times.

Ahmadinejad Set To Be Questioned By Majlis Over Economy Scandal

For the very first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, Iran's president is set to be questioned by its Majlis parliament after the required one-quarter of lawmakers needed to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the legislative body signed a petition authorizing such a move.

It should be noted, however, that a similar petition was signed by a hundred (out of 290) members of Majlis last year only to see signatories withdraw their backing for the measure after calls for "unity" came from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Most Iran-watchers agree that the Supreme Leader's blessing will be needed to fully progress with impeachment proceedings against the Iranian president.

The inquiry relates to an ongoing economic scandal that has become a cause célèbre inside Iran. It is alleged that a group of high-ranking (but as of yet unnamed) government officials forged letters of credit from two of Iran's largest state banks to purchase various state-owned companies to the tune of $2.6 billion dollars. Ahmadinejad's image, which has long rested on taking a strong populist and anti-corruption stance against regime-insiders, has been considerably harmed by the controversy, and his economic minister, Shamsoddin Hosseini, is the latest victim claimed by the scandal. Mr. Hosseini has already been found guilty on charges stemming from the ongoing imbroglio, and is set to be impeached by Majlis sometime tomorrow.

For Khamenei and his regime-loyalists, the political calculus remains the same: is it costlier to have Ahmadinejad (and his "deviant current" of advisers) ride out the last, lame-duck years of his presidency, but also have to continue dealing with his maverick tendencies and constant power-grabs; or, would it be more costly to rid the regime of the divisions that his presidency brings, but in the process, have to sacrifice the man who Khamenei so adamantly backed throughout the 2009 post-election crisis, and by consequence cast doubt on his earlier judgment. If the Supreme Leader's recent opaque comments about scrapping the presidency (in favor of a Prime Minister) hints at anything, it's that the ruling class has grown tired of the complications that elections -- be they free or fixed -- bring to Iran's otherwise authoritarian system.
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UPDATE: Economy Minister Shamseddin Hosseini has survived impeachment by a vote of 141-93.

Map of the Day

Ahmadinejad: The Last Iranian President?

Tehran Bureau reports:

Referring to the elimination of the post of prime minister in the last months of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's life, Khamenei said, "Our political system is based on a presidency, and the president is elected by the direct vote of the people, which is a good and effective system. But if in the near or distant future it seems that a parliamentary system is better for selecting the officials of the executive branch, there will be no problem in changing the present system."

This comes two weeks after Majlis deputy Hamid Reza Katouzian hinted of eliminating the presidency and replacing it with a prime minister elected from the parliamentary body. With Ahmadinejad's wings all but clipped, all eyes are shifting to the 2012 Majlis elections. Memories of Iran's last election are surely still fresh in the Iranian public's mind, and it remains to be seen how the perceived futility (and fear) of going out to the polls will affect turnout (assuming that reformists are even able to field candidates and avoid a boycott). The ruling class, for its part, has remained coy about how it is going resolve its current crisis of leadership, i.e. the Old Guard versus the New Right.

These same divisions were apparent in the decision to arrest a number of Ahmadinejad's aides and Mashaei's advisers, but to hold off on going after the two men directly dispute calls to do so. And most recently, the same fissures are likely what allowed an amateur plot against the Saudi ambassador to the United States to develop without first catching the attention of the Iranian leadership. There are indeed real rifts inside Iran, and as the country's economy continues to stagger under massive inflation, unemployment, and international sanctions, and as the Arab awakening enters its eleventh month and inches ever-closer to Iran, the stability of the regime has never looked more tenuous. Khamenei's words may eventually end up being hyperbole, but there should be no surprise if a desperate Tehran soon ends up taking drastic steps to try to ensure its political survival.

Khamenei's comments (in Farsi) are embedded below:

United States of America v. Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri

The formal complaint of today's bombshell allegation -- that Iranian agents conspired in a murder-for-hire scheme to enlist a Mexican drug cartel member to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States -- is available here in Acrobat format.

"A Period of Fermentation"

In an excellent dispatch from Tehran, Roland Elliott Brown immerses himself in the underbelly of the Iranian capital, and in the wake of the region's revolutionary upheaval, searches for signs of life from the Green movement. One resident remarks:

"Do not think that just because you can't find people demonstrating in the streets, that nothing is happening," insisted Sohrab, a retired engineer and former political prisoner in his 60s, when I told him I thought the opposition was clearly on its back foot. "Iran is going through a period of fermentation now. Ideas and values are evolving rapidly, and the regime is rotting. We can see it all around us."

The piece is an excellent, first-hand glimpse of what life has become in the sprawling metropolis -- no longer an "enormous garden, [but more of an] overgrown prison yard" -- and worth reading in its entirety.

Iran Reportedly Cuts Funding to Hamas Over Group's Refusal to Hold Pro-Assad Rallies

Reuters reports:

One diplomat, who asked not to be identified, said intelligence reports showed that Iran had reduced funding for Hamas.

Other diplomatic sources, also relying on intelligence assessments, said the payments had stopped over the past two months.

The diplomats cited Iran's displeasure over Hamas' refusal to hold rallies in support of Tehran's ally, Assad, in Palestinian refugee camps in Syria after an uprising against his rule. Hamas' leadership outside the Gaza Strip is headquartered in Damascus.

With Gaddafi's four-decade reign of Libya now apparently having come to an end, attention shifts back to Syria, where Bashar al-Assad continues to remain defiant in the face of resilient streets protests calling for his ouster. For the Islamic Republic, the Alawai regime's survival is crucial. Were Assad to fall, Iran would not only lose its chief regional ally, but would also find it increasing difficult to prop up Hezbollah, its Shiaa proxy based in neighboring Lebanon.

And that's not to mention the emotional and psychological boost Iran's opposition would have with the fall of yet another tyrant in its backyard. With Ben Ali and Mubarak overthrown, Saleh recuperating in Riyadh, Gaddafi now on the run, and Assad backed increasingly into a corner, the Arab Spring is inching ever-closer to Iran's doorstep. Time will tell if and how Iran's opposition will mount a resurgence, and were that come to pass, how an increasingly-isolated Iranian leadership will respond.

With the fall of Tripoli, all eyes are now on Damascus.

New Piece in World Politics Review

In a new article for World Politics Review, I look at what impact the Arab Spring has had on the foreign policy reality of Iran. Through a survey of the region, I argue that the Islamic Republic has suffered more long-term geostrategic setbacks than it has made short-term and fleeting gains, and that it may ultimately face newed protests of its own.

The article is available here with a paid subscription or can be purchased on Amazon.com.

Ahmadinejad Interviewed as Mubarak Trial Begins

Euronews has conducted a new interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and in light of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's trial beginning in Cairo, some of the questions are steeped in symbolism in the wake of the events of 2009.

Q: Do you think what we've seen elsewhere in the Middle East might happen in Iran too? Or are you confident everything is stable here?  
A: What happened in Iran is not the same as what is going on in certain other countries. A totally free election was held in Iran.

An excerpt of the interview is embedded below, and a transcript of the entire interview is available here.



(h/t EAWorldView).

Revolutionary Guard General Appointed Oil Minister

With Majlis' 264-216 vote, Rostam Ghasemi becomes the first Revolutionary Guard commander to head a non-defense related government ministry. Ahmadinejad's pick, which had been widely opposed, not only marks a recent rare victory for the embattled president, but also consolidates further economic control into the hands of the country's paramilitary. Notably, Ghasemi is currently subject to both United States and European Union sanctions stemming from his role in Iran's nuclear program, and heads over to the Oil Ministry from his current capacity at Khatam al-Anbiya, a financial powerhouse that is one of the Guards many holdings and assets. Going forward, attention should be paid to Ghasemi's role in OPEC, where tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have recently peaked due to disagreements over oil output, and to whatever effect his appointment will have in rallying the increasingly disloyal Revolutionary Guard rank-and-file squarely back into the Ahmadinejad camp.

Another Iranian Nuclear Physicist Assassinated in Tehran

The Los Angeles Times reports:

The victim, Dariush Rezai, 45, was described by the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency as a professional associated with the country's Atomic Energy Organization, which oversees the country's complex of nuclear installations, including uranium enrichment facilities that produce fuel for energy reactors.

[...]

Rezai, who reportedly held a doctorate in physics, was reportedly shot by gunmen on a motorcycle outside his home in the southeast of the capital, Tehran, according to the semi-official Mehr News Agency.

In January of 2010, physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi was killed in bombing carried out by remote control. Later in 2010, a similar motorcycle attack was carried out that killed nuclear scientist Majid Shahriar and injured Fereidoun Abbasi, one of the nuclear program's most renown figures.
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UPDATE: Iran is now saying that the victim in Saturday's attack was a university student, not an atomic physicist as earlier reported. Apparently a mix-up over the name of the victim led to the confusion.

UPDATE 2: And the plot thickens. The Associated Press has now confirmed that Rezai was involved in developing high-voltage switches, a key component needed to trigger a nuclear warhead, and a reviewed abstract co-authored by Rezai supports the claim.